wolfie09

At the same time GFS is in SE NY lol

12z Canadian

I've heard the ukmet is even farther SE then 0z, yet to have access though..

Gfs comin in NW, inline with euro ensembles..

6z control..

We have 6z ensembles !! haha

I am sticking with the euro ens until they tell me otherwise lol They have had this system up the apps/Ov for 2-3 days now..

6z/18z icon only go out to hr 120..

Icon would of been a nice hit..

One of the worst ones...

No not from this board, couple other boards lol It's tough because days intersect.. This is day 6-10 but starts sat evening, precip already on going..This also could include some snow from the follow up system..

According to the MA folks (all over the net) it's the UKmet leadin the way

Some of these euro ens members are sick..I didn't see any with less then 6"..

Same look as the euro, eventually it drops down to the south shore..

Forecast for a high of 16 sat. 5 sat night and 11 Sunday.. That's actually pretty good improvement..lol

I'll take my chances with that kind of over running which by itself can dump impressive totals.. We also have strong HP slowly retreating to our north..

NWS doesn't seem to be concerned

GFS para is Farther east then all euro guidance but yet still delivers near 1.5" liquid.. About .10 is from the CF..Misses us to the south with Fridays system..

For Friday event.. A flat southern stream shortwave will support a relatively weak surface storm that will track from the Upper Ohio Valley across (or just south) of our forecast area Thursday night. For what its worth...will use a blend of the ECMWF and SREF mean for the track of the system. Either way you slice it...our forecast area will be cold enough aloft for all of the associated pcpn to be in the form of snow. As we progress through the night...light to occasionally moderate snow will spread across the entire region. The main forcing for the snowfall will be a weakly coupled H25 jet...with a 110kt arctic jet over Quebec and a more impressive 140kt sub tropical jet over the Deep South. While liquid equivalent amounts will remain UNDER a quarter inch...the microphysics will be favorable for snowfall that could average 2 to 4 inches. Fair deep lift will be in place...which will include a 5k foot deep dendritic growth area. Point soundings also suggest an 8k foot deep forecast isothermal layer around -5c...which should promote snow growth through accretion. That being said...this snowfall will be FAR from crippling... but it will likely be enough to have an impact throughout the region. Its not out of the question that winter wx advisories may be needed.

Destroyed by the control run..