wolfie09

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Significant lake snows possible during this period... As we open this period Thursday morning...a wavy frontal boundary over eastern New York will be in the process of slowly pushing east across New England. This front will briefly be held up by a wave that will move up the New Jersey coast. Have thus delayed the lowering of pops for the Eastern Lake Ontario region where steady snow will persist through the morning within an area of strong frontogentic lift. As one moves back to the west...there will be a rather sharp cut off to the steady snow. The onset of deep subsidence under a building sfc based ridge will only allow for scattered light snow showers in the morning...then nothing more than some flurries for the afternoon. Snow accumulations on Wednesday will range from less than an inch from the Finger Lakes west...to a few inches over the North Country. Otherwise Thursday will be a colder day...by roughly 10 degrees...as H85 temps tumbling to -12c will only support max within a few degrees of freezing. So much for our warm up! We will likely not get back to freezing until we get well into February. More on that statement in the Long Term discussion below. A pair of strong disturbances rotating through the base of an amplifying longwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night will not only help to deepen our cold air in the wake of the aforementioned cold front...but it will also drive a reinforcing arctic cold front southwards across Ontario. While this front is forecast to eventually stall over or just north of our forecast area...it will set the stage for what could be one of the most impressive lake effect events of the season thus far. In any case... synoptic scale subsidence found well ahead of this boundary will support uneventful weather for most of our forecast area Thursday night. The exception will be east of both lakes where a 260-280 flow of -14c H85 air will generate some lake snow. Since the steering flow will be moving around a bit and the capping inversion will average 7k ft...significant accumulations are not expected during this 12 hour period. Even so...pops will be at categorical levels. The only caveat is that guidance is suggesting a subtle lifting of the cap by a few thousand feet during the course of the night...so the activity should become a little more impressive by daybreak. This will be the beginning of what COULD be a huge event east of Lake Ontario. On Friday...moderate to heavy lake snow will become established east of Lake Ontario with less impressive snows found east of Lake Erie. There will be three main reasons for the difference. The first will be the aforementioned arctic cold front that will stall in the vicinity of Lake Ontario. The front will serve as an additional focusing mechanism for lake snows that should already be in place over the center of the lake. Most guidance packages are already locking onto the idea that there will be an area of strong low level convergence in this area...both due to the thermal circulation over the lake and also from the synoptic scale forcing from the stalled boundary. The second reason for the more impressive snows off this lake will be the multi-lake connection. This is even picked up by the more course global models such as the ECMWF. Do not under- estimate the significance of this upstream priming! Finally...the plume will be nearly parallel to the axis of the lake...maximizing residency time for more efficient heat and moisture transport off the lake surface. That all being said...this band will have the potential to produce multiple feet of snow with hourly rates exceeding 2 inches. As for the Lake Erie based snows...the westerly flow will be more orthogonal to the lake...so multiple bands will be more likely than a single plume. While there will be a little upstream priming from the southern part of Lake Michigan...this is not expected to be a significant contributor. There will however be added orographic lift from the Chautauqua ridge. This should also help to broaden the area of snow immediately downstream. While significant accumulations will be possible off Lake Erie...rates and totals should pale in comparison to those of its sister lake to the north. Stay tuned. Otherwise...it will be a colder day across the region with temperatures generally in the teens being accompanied by some flurries and nuisance light snow showers. Pops will be reduced from continuity in areas outside of the above detailed lake snow areas. For Friday night...the synoptic environment will be nearly identical to the previous 12 hours with a stalled arctic boundary in the vicinity of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile...while it will be a few degrees colder aloft...the general thermal profile will be very similar as well. The colder air will offer the potential for steeper lapse rates and higher capping inversion...so if anything...lake snows could be more organized/impressive. Mins Friday night will generally be in the single digits. Arctic high pressure over Quebec Saturday morning is forecast to push off to the east during the course of the day. This will combine with a digging upstream shortwave to back the steering flow more to the southwest. This in turn will allow the arctic front that had been stalled over Lake Ontario to push back to the north...removing the focusing mechanism for strong low level convergence over Lake Ontario and likely ending the moderate to heavy lake snow. The backing of the winds will also break the enhancing upstream connections. The result should be a weakening of the lake snows while they push to the north within the backing flow. Elsewhere... general subsidence should keep mainly fair weather in place. The backing flow will continue through Saturday night while the limiting inversion will lower. This should further weaken/diminish the scope of the lake snows.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

A significant lake effect snow event is looking more possible from later Thursday night into Saturday. If guidance remains consistent... several feet of snow could accumulate in the vicinity of the Tug Hill.

Depends whats your global of choice lol Euro looks mainly wsw, more of a 250-260 vector, right in carol wheelhouse.. Ukmet much more westerly, like a 270 vector..

Just a hair to late on the euro, not that it matters much 8 days out..

Euro has been pretty consistent with this follow up wave, dumping few/several inches of snow after the front moves through..

Nam now getting into range, giving us a sneak peak at the start of the lake effect event..

Even the euro has mixing for some for a very short period of time, exact track means everything even when it comes out of canada lol

Our nexxt potential region wide snowfall.. Euro looks pretty good with that feature at this lead time..

I am not really seeing all these cutters in the LR lol 6z GFS had one like 260 hrs out lol GFS para had none . And the euro looked pretty darn good over the next 10 days, minus whatever slop we see Wednesday..

Euro has a moderate 4"-6" event with the secondary wave riding the front..

The ukmet which shows LES pretty well, looks good over the weekend.. Pops raised to 80%, lets see what can go wrong this one lol

Over 1/2" ice on the 12k..

NWS better start paying attention to this lol Right now they have a few inches of snow and NO ice..

If it was stalled it would have much more potential, some potential snow nonetheless..Nothing wrong with padding the stats lol

Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern. The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it `charged`. As for the day to day weather...a cold southwesterly flow on Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes. Otherwise...general subsidence should keep the bulk of the region pcpn free with max temps generally in the teens. A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing between the various ensembles. A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the Great Lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though between the various medium range packages...so will have to continue to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow.

A very strong shortwave will dig south towards the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night. This will help to drive an arctic cold front to our doorstep by daybreak Friday while a weak sfc reflection will be parked over southern Ontario in the vcnty of Lake Huron. The boundary will generate scattered snow showers over our region with lake enhanced snows being found east of both lakes. The lake effect could become significant as the cold air deepens and a solid westerly flow becomes established. Stay tuned...especially those in and around the Tug Hill area. The base of a longwave trough will push across the Lower Great Lakes on Friday while the aforementioned arctic front will be stalled near Lake Ontario. This will set the stage for an even colder day across our region...but more importantly...the persistent westerly flow in the vcnty of the boundary will favor an impressive plume of lake snow near the Tug Hill. The remainder of the region will experience scattered snow showers...but accumulations should be confined to areas east of both lakes.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...Potential for icy mixed precipitation... This will be a fairly active period...one that will probably start with some mixed precipitation and an eventual winter weather advisory. Stay tuned as the event nears for another round of winter weather headlines. Shortwave energy...seen in WV imagery over the inter-mountain region late this afternoon...will eject out across the Plains during the day Tuesday. This will be accompanied by another instance where the two main branches of the jet will phase over the Mississippi Valley. Unlike the case from our major winter storm from the past weekend though...the northern branch will dominate the flow and will have more of an influence on the path of the resulting cyclone. Before its all said and done...the mature sfc low will move by to our west on a track that is not dissimilar to those that generate powerful wind storms for our forecast area. Fortunately...the low is not forecast to significantly strengthen. In any case...the consolidating sfc low will move to about Chicago by the end of Tuesday night...while the arctic high that had been dominating our weather will be centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. The will establish a moderately strong warm advective pattern over the Lower Great Lakes...aided by a 50kt low level jet that will nudge into our area after midnight. The arrival of the strong low level jet will be the main source of lift for the expected shower activity with a little help being supplied by a 100kt H25 jet. While strong agreement between the various guidance packages will lend to high confidence in the pops for Tuesday night...there is lot of uncertainty as to the p-type that will be experienced. At first glance...the warm advection appears to eliminate the dendritic growth zone. Given the synoptic pattern...one could easily conclude that any snow at the onset will change to a period of freezing rain...then just to rain. This would especially be the case for sites WEST of the Genesee valley. One problem is that guidance is suggesting that a relatively dry environment under 10k ft will lend itself to strong dynamic cooling through evaporation during the first few hours of pcpn. There is also some question as to whether a dendritic growth zone at alto-cu level will be able to `seed` the underlying increase in low level moisture. If both conditions listed actually come to pass...then the p type will stay as snow for the bulk of the night...particularly for the Finger Lakes to the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise...snow at the onset will transition to freezing rain...then just to rain. This while complex transition will almost certainly lead to winter weather advisories being issued for the threat of freezing rain. Pops overnight will range from high chance in the Finger Lakes and interior of the Southern Tier to categorical over the far west. It should go without saying that a non-diurnal temperature trend is anticipated during this synoptic set up...with mins generally occurring before midnight.

This is our warm up on the nam lol Going to feel like summer compared to what we are going through now..

Nam once again is all ice, no plain rain (for the cutter), temps in the mid -upper 20's.. Just under 1/2" LE in the form of ice verbatim..

Nice signal on the EPS for the end of the work week..

To much SE Ridge to allow this to go much farther South/east..If we had some strong HP to the north it would be different story..