Not sure how this is 12"-18" over the tug lol
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant lake snows possible Thursday night through
Saturday morning...
Conditions favorable for lake effect snow set up ENE of Lake Erie
Thursday night, and later Friday/Friday night east of Lake Ontario.
The event can be broken up into two distinct periods - one before an
arctic boundary that will blast through the region on Friday, and
one following the boundary.
East of Lake Erie...A lake band should begin to organize Thursday
Night. This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on the
Southtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morning
rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this band, but models
have yet to fully lock into this idea. The atmospheric profile is
favorable though, with a cap above 7500` along with a saturated and
cold airmass together with a full lake fetch. This band may drop
several inches of snow until the above mentioned arctic boundary
forces the band inland with eventual reorganization over the higher
terrain to the east in the afternoon and evening. Later Friday
evening, the band or multiple bands will probably keep going east of
the lake, peaking at roughly 1"/hr and then weaken rapidly on
Saturday as flow quickly backs to the south during the morning.
Current forecasts have storm totals reaching 8-16" under the
heaviest snows, with of course much less outside of lake bands.
East of Lake Ontario...There are some models that try to generate a
lake band SE of Lake Ontario (ex the Canadian), but most models have
primarily a WSW flow without much of a response until Friday. With
borderline temperatures aloft together with backing winds with time
as the arctic boundary approaches, will hold off on any watches and
higher snow rates until Friday. Some lake enhancement or general
upslope flow should generate at least some snow accumulations across
the Tug Hill Plateau during the morning, but a full fledged band may
in fact have a hard time getting going until the frontal passage.
After this point though, expect a band to blossom over and then move
to the south of the Tug Hill.
A band may then become quite intense Friday night along the Southern
Lake Ontario shore from about Wayne County to Oswego County with
snow rates in excess of 2"/hr as is often the case with increased
convergence at night. There is the possibility that the band may
hug Monroe County as well. These types of bands however typically
remain just north of the Rochester Metro area and sometimes even
have a slight concave appearance on radar. Regardless, this will
probably be the most intense and interesting part of this particular
lake effect event. The band should begin to weaken and move to the
north on Saturday as winds back with time.
For other areas, the main event will likely be a short-lived burst
of snow with the arctic front on Friday. This may drop a quick inch
or two of snow in the afternoon, probably before the evening
commute. The boundary will disrupt or interact with the lake bands,
and may evolve into a squall line as it moves ESE across the state.
But otherwise most areas outside of lake effect regions will only
see a chance of snow showers.