wolfie09

"Potential" for a nice burst of snow tom afternoon..

Here is the rgem, only out to friday early afternoon..

Not sure what wind direction this is lol

Nam looking better than previous runs..

Not sure how this is 12"-18" over the tug lol .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Significant lake snows possible Thursday night through Saturday morning... Conditions favorable for lake effect snow set up ENE of Lake Erie Thursday night, and later Friday/Friday night east of Lake Ontario. The event can be broken up into two distinct periods - one before an arctic boundary that will blast through the region on Friday, and one following the boundary. East of Lake Erie...A lake band should begin to organize Thursday Night. This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on the Southtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morning rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this band, but models have yet to fully lock into this idea. The atmospheric profile is favorable though, with a cap above 7500` along with a saturated and cold airmass together with a full lake fetch. This band may drop several inches of snow until the above mentioned arctic boundary forces the band inland with eventual reorganization over the higher terrain to the east in the afternoon and evening. Later Friday evening, the band or multiple bands will probably keep going east of the lake, peaking at roughly 1"/hr and then weaken rapidly on Saturday as flow quickly backs to the south during the morning. Current forecasts have storm totals reaching 8-16" under the heaviest snows, with of course much less outside of lake bands. East of Lake Ontario...There are some models that try to generate a lake band SE of Lake Ontario (ex the Canadian), but most models have primarily a WSW flow without much of a response until Friday. With borderline temperatures aloft together with backing winds with time as the arctic boundary approaches, will hold off on any watches and higher snow rates until Friday. Some lake enhancement or general upslope flow should generate at least some snow accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau during the morning, but a full fledged band may in fact have a hard time getting going until the frontal passage. After this point though, expect a band to blossom over and then move to the south of the Tug Hill. A band may then become quite intense Friday night along the Southern Lake Ontario shore from about Wayne County to Oswego County with snow rates in excess of 2"/hr as is often the case with increased convergence at night. There is the possibility that the band may hug Monroe County as well. These types of bands however typically remain just north of the Rochester Metro area and sometimes even have a slight concave appearance on radar. Regardless, this will probably be the most intense and interesting part of this particular lake effect event. The band should begin to weaken and move to the north on Saturday as winds back with time. For other areas, the main event will likely be a short-lived burst of snow with the arctic front on Friday. This may drop a quick inch or two of snow in the afternoon, probably before the evening commute. The boundary will disrupt or interact with the lake bands, and may evolve into a squall line as it moves ESE across the state. But otherwise most areas outside of lake effect regions will only see a chance of snow showers.

Snows for days on a SW flow on the LR euro, much more active off Ontario then Erie verbatim..

Not much change on the euro..Yes i used kuchera lol

GGEM and Ukmet both have a nice westerly flow during the day on friday into friday night..

Euro at 6z still with the West-WSW flow.

Euro and Ukmet FTW lol I would guess kbuf is going with pattern recognition over what global models show verbatim.. I've also noticed some models like the Fv3 retract the band once winds turn Westerly..

I know you can't expect much but globals look like crap lol Heck the GFS doesn't even have a West wind anymore lol Nam has pretty much no lake effect at all, just a quick moving transient band.. At least we have those europeans

The euro just like the gfs has several opportunities for snow over the next 10 days..

GFS looked better for that day 7 system, bringing the system south of us.. NWS has all snow at the moment..

Still cautiously optimistic, need to wait on some meso's. The 12z euro had a mainly W-WSW wind while the Ukmet is nearly due west for the duration and GFS para was mostly WNW lol I myself am going all in on the ukie

And Mike "Mooseeee" Mussina made it in as well!!! Well deserved..

In other news Rivera became the first player to be unanimously voted into the Hall, appearing on all 425 ballots

If it doesn't hit me I may chase too lol It's not like I have to go to far. Maybe Carol has a room for rent ..lol

Been waiting for this all year, now just has to materialize lol

3K nam has it as well, normally would be a pretty darn good track for cny..

Pivotal is usually pretty good, much better then TT.. Keep in mind it's a moving cold front, quick hitter, 6-12 hr window for snow on the NAM/EURO.. Me personally i'd like to replenish what ever we lose from the warmth and rain lol

They updated the AFD and added this.. In fact...there is a strong suggestion from many of the medium range ensembles that the blocky pattern will be highlighted by the polar vortex settling as far south as Lake Superior! This is some 500-1000 miles further south than normal...something that we only see a few times a decade.

Excellent write up today... Also...be wary of using simple NAO and PNA indices as a guide. These indices are often calculated at specific points...so if the hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point...the values shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual 500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the PNA indice...the Greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-south and east-west so the NAO indice is somewhat misleading. Be careful