wolfie09

West wind is hard to come by, it's really only a 270 vector.. But we can get hit with other wind directions as well.. WSW at 260 vector would be fine, maybe evenr a 280 wnw flow, still new haha Trying to figure out what works and what doesn't.. We will figure this shlt out eventually..lol

I have a feeling will be some decent changes to the snow map next update.. This would be brutal, luckily we still have 30 hours to figure it out.. That's about 1.25"-1.5" liquid over southern jefferson county, worst case scenerio i take an 8 min trip north lol

Starting to think i could miss the bulk of this event just to the north.. Just like those darn canadians..

Seems about right imby, nearest WU station with just over an inch liquid..

We wont get a better idea on wind direction until tomorrow, pathetic i know, can't forecast wind direction one day in advance lol Pretty much have 4 different camps that have developed.. The canadian guidance which is more SW then anything.. Euro/Nam/3knam/Nmm/icon which is wsw.. Uk/wrf-Nssl which is more westerly.. Both ARW products are WNW.. No secret which way i'm leaning lol And it's not the most favorable wind direction for me..

Nmm looks like the NAM/3k nam..

Nam products have almost nothing for kfzy but the ARW to the rescue with over 2 feet haha..

Flipping over to snow now, an hour earlier than expected.

I've never experienced a WSW flow, not sure what to expect lol I ride the southern edge of heavy accumulations on the majority of models..

Same with the 3k..

Dave may be in a good spot for this one..

Looks like a cave to the euro to me.

Pouring out.. Should start to see a change over around 16z..

The euro had lake effect from hour 150 till the end of it runs lol

Those Europeans stick together...

I think the reason my NWS forecast is always so wrong is they use the Canadian way to much lol But never hear them mention the ukmet, do they not see verification.. With this event they mentioned the GFS/Nam/ggem but not the euro which is had the same wind direction for 3days now lol

Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for our region. Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would support near record cold across our region.

Funny how the NWS put kfzy at the high end but almost nowhere else off Ontario.. Expected snow here is 6"-8" but a high of 12"-18" lol

Same goes for the ukmet..

Euro continues with it's mostly WSW flow.. Nam more "Westerly" as well..

Nam looks pretty good, all things considered..

Yeah, HP retreats just in time to allow it to cut lol Obviously that can change.. What a LES event it has behind just like the euro

More rain/mix, at least on the GFS.