wolfie09

Meso models starting to pick up the lake effect for tom/tom night..This obviously includes today's event as well, up north..

Didn't realize we have a shot at LES tomorrow lol Off of Lake Ontario, lake enhanced snow behind the departing cold front and light synoptic snow will start in the early afternoon and transition to lake effect by the mid to late afternoon. Initially a west-southwest flow will start the lake effect over the northern portion of the North Country. Winds shift more to a westerly (260- 280) direction and the longer fetch of the lake allows a better developed lake band to form and focus on the Tug Hill during the late afternoon and into the evening. Guidance is suggesting the potential for a three lake connection with the Lake Ontario band, with the connection extending upstream to Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Winds will continue to shift through the evening to a more northwest direction and then northerly by the middle of the night on Sunday night. This will result in the band shifting south through the early morning, and then dissipating with minimal fetch. Some guidance is holding on to the band over the lake through the morning via a convergence zone over the lake with the much colder airmass over the lake, but winds appear to be a bit to strong to support this. Area east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill can expect to receive up to 4 to 8 inches of snow for Sunday into Sunday night.

The original system for early week is pretty much a non event now on the euro, it's all about the system to the south.. Interestingly enough the NWS doesn't even mention this potential.. As for ptype, that seems to be trending toward the warmer end of the spectrum at least for the early Tuesday period. A track to our northwest is now favored by all large scale guidance, which would allow for a brief warmup and accompanying period of possible mixed precipitation or even rain late Monday night into Tuesday.

Starting to get some mood flakes here as a secondary band is forming just to the east.. Let's see where this goes .

Euro has almost double digits for the early week system not including any LES..

Storm retrogrades west, initally out of the wnw quickly to west/wsw..Subject to change for obvious reasons lol

Yea the globals say we do this once again tue-thur on a west/wsw flow..Lets see how this one can hit the crapper lol I noticed P&C showing 4"-8" here but only 1"-2" in DT Altmar 3.5 miles south, going to be close.. Pops already increased to likely for said "potential" LES event.. Monday Night Snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -5. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Chance of precipitation is 50%

GFS is out to lunch..

Latest KBUF map moved a little farther south, jumping pulaski up 2"-3"..

These are some huge fluffy arse flakes, wouldn't take much precip to add up if we can get that band far enough south tonight..

Icon looks similar to that of the ukmet/euro, gfs does not agree, probably more rain then snow, at least for here lol

Those damn Canadians eh.. Really nailed this one eh Even the global had a mostly SW/WSW flow eh Better luck next time eh They probably do better with lake effect because half the lake is theirs lol eh

HRDPS gives more snow to herkimer/utica from the erie band then i see overnight from the ontario band haha .. Can't make this stuff up lol But no model had a quick couple inches this morning, so we shall see..

Nice surprise 2" over night, on and off mod-heavy snow.

Congrats Watertown..

Just noticed that the 12z gfs transferred to the coast.. I'll have to double check into it but i think the euro did this as well..Probably why we saw near double digits verbatim..

At this rate I'll be lucky to see 6" lol Rgem still Loving the SW flow, jp the Watertown area. 3k much more West/WSW hitting up the tug the hardest.

New map..

Kinda seen this one coming.. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 17 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Oswego county toward the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

That "clipper' is bringing with it some warmer air, which obviously needs to be watched in future runs.. Mixing doesn't last for long but it's there.. Some places receive near 1" liquid from this event..