Euro looks pretty good, not so much for the synoptic synoptic system more so for the LES, keeps the lake going until sat morning..
Obviously can't take the numbers verbatim, just like the look starting thursday..
Global models look great for the southern tug and surrounding area's especially on Thursday/friday as the ggem/GFS/ukmet also go more "Westerly"..
Cautiously optimistic as I wait for meso-models to start getting into range..
This is obviously a much longer event then last..
I would expect winds to fluctuate enough over the 3 days to give us atleast something, especially thursday and possibly friday..
So yeahh, Nam meh lol
Looks like the euro verbatim, at least for here..
5"-6" of snow which is about what I am expecting, the Low end of the NWS 6"-12" forecast.
I can't speak for off Erie but the GFS/Nam have a predominant WSW flow off Ontario..Nam gets me a little more into the action on the southern fringes..
Finished with 5.5" yesterday/overnight..
Pulaski scored 9" from that little band, not sure I buy the 0.20" LE lol Snow did have a big time fluff factor but probably not that much.
Total snow accumulations
from Monday evening to Wednesday night will range from 3 to 6 inches
across the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes
to 4 to 8 inches across the western Southern Tier and 10 to 18
inches east of Lake Ontario. Gusty winds during this time will
promote areas of drifting and blowing snow which will greatly reduce
visibilities. At this time, confidence is high enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for east of Lake Ontario.
It looks like next week will be dominated by a WSW/SW flow, not sure why I have high end pops all week, probably be watching a mile north get hammered lol
This system on Monday/Tuesday still looks ok with about 3/4"-1"+ liquid on the majority of models..
We are a special breed lol
Majority of the population is weather illiterate...
I actually know a few who can't tell the difference between a tornado and hurricane lol
Almost everyone thinks sleet is freezing rain..haha
I have friends who call bust when the forecast is 30 percent showers , "weatherman are always wrong"
To be honest I'm pretty sure the general public doesn't look at KBUF clown maps nor do they read the AFD lol
More people pay attention to the twc or AccuWeather then the NWS lol