wolfie09

Maybe i can hit warning criteria afterall..

Still ripping large parachutes, nearing 4" since late afternoon..

Yeah, about the same here.. Here was the 18z 3k nam snow depth midnight friday and still snowing, minus about 8" which it starts us with for whatever reason lol

Radar looks a little better then i thought it would TBH.. An inch of new snow so far, some of the better dendrites i have seen this year.. I think I myself will head up towards watertown tomorrow, need to do some shopping

Snow has really started to pick up in intensity the last 30 min or so,mid 20's, big fat flakes, no wind, just the way i like it

New map that now goes into fri morning..

From 2.5"-3" Liquid to pretty much nothing in about 10 miles, going to be a fun one

We have to have patience lol I Know it's hard, just waiting for the other shoe to drop lol I like overnight we'd in Thursday as the time frame we start to hopefully cash in..

This is not today's radar I repeat not today's radar haha Weather US now had Radar archives that go right into the counties.. Need a subscription to animate it but I'm cheap lol https://weather.us/radar-us/oswego/reflectivity-composite/KTYX_20070205-015000z.html

Impressive probabilities for 18"+ The expected snowfall only goes till 7 pm Thursday, I still have 100% chance of snow Thursday night and 80% Friday.. NWS still calling for 7"-13" today

Hopefully it doesn't and you have to come down here

Nice 10 day stretch for them..

I think it was 2015 where Watertown area had several big events in a row, snow breeds snow lol

Saved the best for last , the 12z ukmet AKA the european NAM.. Loves to throw out that precip lol But we get hit pretty good thursday into friday verbatim.. I live pretty far north (1 mile SE of Richland) which should help with a west south westerly fllow..

Here was the euro.. I don't give a poop on what it shows verbatim lol I just like the look of the precip over the lake,,

More of a w-wsw flow for the day on thursday into friday, at least at the surface..

Haha Normally I would agree, but the 3k is only till 1am Thur, fun hasn't started yet.

That's the CF swinging through, secondary will develop along the front but to far east for us..Thats the biggest difference from runs a couple days ago..

P&C Shows 8"-16" Tonight Snow showers likely between 9pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow after 11pm. Temperature rising to around 21 by 5am. Breezy, with a southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Southeast wind 7 to 16 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Not so sure about that lol A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for east of Lake Ontario with 12-18 inches expected through Tuesday night.

Yep, have no idea what they see lol 12"+ before LES even starts east of Ontario.. We better see some 20/1 ratios then lol

During this period the wintry pattern will pose three main concerns: lake effect snow, blowing snow, and dangerously cold wind chills. Lake effect snow will develop northeast of the lakes Tuesday night, with significant accumulation possible in the Buffalo metro area. An arctic front will then pass early Wednesday, which will usher in bitterly cold air into the entire region which will remain through the end of the week. Lake snows will expand in area, and generally focus east and/or northeast of the lakes. There will also be gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday, which will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard conditions are possible at times. For the details... Model guidance is in good agreement concerning the general pattern, but differs on the specifics. For example, there is no doubt that there will be some lake effect snows, and that it will be windy and cold through the period. The wind direction will determine where lake effect bands set up, and there are still minor differences among the model guidance. The most noteworthy is the 06Z/12Z NAM develops a wave along the arctic front late Tuesday night. This would shift winds to the SSW and push the Lake Erie band into Niagara County while most other guidance does not have this wave and keeps winds southwesterly. After this, a general WSW flow will persist Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before gradually weakening Thursday night into Friday. 850mb temperatures will plummet behind an arctic frontal passage on Wednesday, and will remain in the -25C to -30C range for most of the period. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough and a connection to upstream lakes will provide ample moisture for persistent lake snows during the period. One complicating factor is that Lake Erie may start to freeze up during the event. Even so, there should be ample breaks to support lake effect snow, especially considering that wave action will hinder ice growth. Off Lake Erie (including the Buffalo metro area)... Lake effect snow will develop focused near Buffalo Tuesday night and will meander north late Tuesday night before dropping southward early Wednesday. After this, the band will remain somewhere between the southtowns (West Seneca/Orchard Park and the Boston/Wyoming hills Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Lake snows will also extend well inland into Genesee and Wyoming counties due to the strong winds. There is still some uncertainty in snow amounts, but in general expect 12-18 inches across the snow belts, around a foot in downtown Buffalo, and 6-12 inches across the northtowns. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible if the band remains in one location for a long time. Snowfall rates will average 1-2 inches per hour, but cold temperatures will support snow which is very effective in lowering visibility. Amounts will be less (but potentially significant) along the Chautauqua ridge extending into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, however the WSW flow will keep the heavy snow north of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville where there will be much less accumulation. This said, the greater impact which will be felt regardless of snow amount is the strong winds and blowing snow. Winds will be modest Tuesday night, but then increase Wednesday through Thursday, with gusts up to 40 mph. A weak ridge will build into western New York on Friday with diminishing winds bringing an end to the lake effect snow. Off Lake Ontario (including the Watertown area)... Synoptic snows will transition to lake effect on Tuesday night. Modest lake snows will initially focus across the St. Lawrence River late Tuesday night, and then intensify and shift south across Watertown on Wednesday. The heaviest snows will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening when the long fetch down Lake Ontario and orographic lift enhance snowfall rates on the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour are possible during this time. The band will gradually weaken late Thursday night into Friday, but still may produce some moderate additional snow accumulation. Snowfall amounts from lake effect are expected to be 2- 3 feet on the Tug Hill. Watertown is a tricky forecast since it`s on the northern fringe of the band, but right now it looks like 1-2 feet. Amounts will drop off considerably southward through Oswego County. This said, there will be a significant impact from strong winds and blowing snow. Winds will gust up to 40 mph Wednesday through Thursday evening, and then diminish late Thursday night into Friday. For the rest of the area (including the Rochester metro area)... It will be bitterly cold Wednesday night through Thursday with the combination of arctic air and strong winds. Highs on Wednesday will be in the morning, with temperatures falling through the single digits Wednesday afternoon and below zero in most areas by Wednesday evening. This, combined with the winds, will result in wind chill as cold as 25 to 30 below in most locations during this time. Temperatures will remain cold through Friday, but winds will diminish late in the period which will provide a modest improvement. Most of the snow during this time will be lake effect, but a pair of shortwaves may bring a few general snow showers during the day Thursday and Friday. There also is a risk that the strong winds will bring lake snows well east of Lake Erie on Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly extending into Monroe and Livingston Counties at times.

Gets us again two days later lol May be some left over energy..