wolfie09

Updated map for this evening/overnight..

Latest HRRR runs moved north a little like expected, drops the band south over the area around 8pm.. Could be a decent one for somebody.. The other day pulaski picked up nearly double digits in 5-6hrs under similar circumstances..

Looking at some of the other guidance i'm thinking the Hrrr probably has to much of a "northerly"component..Almost other meso-models have more of a west-east based band but some hug the shore with limted inland extent.. Nontheless Kuchera show's around 20" for the New haven area lol

This would not surprise me one bit haha Hrrr has been pretty consistent with developing a band just to the south for the overnight hours, close to the lake shore.. Sometimes you just can't win

Snow starting to pick up some, i could just take a 1/4 mile walk lol HRRR turns winds more westerly/WNW later this afternoon/evening..

A run down of tonight's meso-models.. Going to be a close one matt, all about watching the radar tomorrow lol

Mean Wind flow goes NW/WNW in Feb..

West wind just not as frequent as it's made to seem lol Loot at WSW flow, thats why carol always getting crushed haha

18z 3k NAM was to far south with the Ontario band as of 2z..The 0z 3kNAM adjusted, really hard to trust any model with sharp cutoffs especially Lake effect..Every mile matters lol..

Huge bust potential thats for sure lol 3k nam has been pretty darn comsistent with this sharp cutoff.. From 1" at 43.50N to 30" at 43.56N Whats the odds the 3k has that nailed lol

Here it comes.. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Pretty nice forecast 4 miles SSW of sandy creek.. This Afternoon Snow before 4pm, then snow showers likely after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 8. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight A chance of snow showers before 7pm, then snow after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow between 7pm and 3am. Low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -25. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 10am. High near 7. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Friday Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 12. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Forecast here went from 10"-20" to 16"-26" plus what ever falls on friday morning... Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 9am. High near 10. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 11 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -15. Southwest wind 7 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Friday Snow showers, mainly before 2pm. High near 15. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

So your telling me Carol is not seeing 110" on nearly 4" Liquid ? Haha

I'm not sure this model is ever correct lol Last event it had 2 feet in fulton just hours before watertown got pummeled..

Yes sir. I live in North Altmar (Richland) just south of Pulaski lattitude which should hopefully help some lol Thank you!!

Rechecked my coordinates, im at 43.543121, so we're good haha .. Nam continues with it's crazy cuttoff, couple feet over my house with less then 6" in the back of my property, i'd like to see that one lol

Iteresting "case study" for me is as i'm still trying to figure out what wind direction i can succeed on lol We have a 16" snow depth in DT Altmar and nearly double that here just south of "Richland", difference of about 3.5 miles.. Will start to look at the meso-models more closely, NWS going with 12"-20" tomorrow at the moment..

It's going to be a close call thats for sure lol Take these number with a grain of salt.. Still snowing..

3k nam

The NAM has 43.54N with 28" verbatim.. And 43.53N with 8" lol Guuess where i live haha