wolfie09

Para

This inlcudes Lake enhancement/effect on the backside.. Just trying to get your hopes up again

Gfs restores Hope..lol

Fulton special .

Band will find its way north of "freak" and south of me lol

Sr models starting to come out now..

NWS loves kfzy lol

It's more like euro caved to the icon lol It's had a cutter the entire time..

This looks good for you Matt.. GFS also shows a West wind for about 12hours, so we'll see ..

We can stop the later transfer now lol

Ukmet nothing like the GFS..

12z Gfs Straight cutter..

A soaking rain will arrive by afternoon, if not a bit sooner, then spread quickly east across the remainder of the area through Thursday night. There will be enough forcing into the area to support a period of possible thunderstorms Thursday night, and perhaps heavy rain. The rainfall associated with this system will need to be monitored very closely as this could be a significant rainfall event with amounts potentially nearing an inch. Rainfall amounts of this magnitude could certainly bring renewed hydrologic concerns, especially considering the several ice jams which are currently in place on some of the Buffalo area creeks. The system dry slot will punch through the region late Thursday night into Friday, as the low pressure center continues to deepen as it lifts through Ontario into Quebec, forcing a powerful cold front through the area. This will bring a quick end to the precipitation as the cold front swings through. Cold air will rapidly rush into the area in wake of the front, with temperatures dropping into the 20s through the day Friday. There will be the potential for a flash freeze given wet surfaces from all the preceding rain. In addition, an increasing pressure gradient coupled with drier air and cold air advection into the region will likely result in a period of strong gusty winds. The potential for the strongest wind gusts look to be in the typically favored west-southwest flow areas northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area over to Rochester. Momentum transfer profiles suggesting these areas will likely see gusts of 50 to 55 mph, perhaps even higher. Wind headlines will need to be considered as the event nears. The incoming colder air will allow for a brief lake response later Friday into Friday night, this will especially be the case east and southeast of a fully open Lake Ontario. A few inches of snowfall is not out of the question.

Oh my lol

Later transfer on the 0z euro..

Yes please...

Another trend towards a euro like solution..

Small window for some lake effect Friday afternoon/evening.. Rapidly colder air builds into the area through the end of the week as flow becomes more westerly and west-northwesterly. This will result in deepening inversion heights over the lower Great Lakes. As such, lake effect snow showers will be developing by that juncture, especially east of the fully open Lake Ontario.

Light-moderate snow event verbatim but better than a cold rain lol

Lol