A soaking rain will arrive by afternoon, if not a bit sooner,
then spread quickly east across the remainder of the area
through Thursday night. There will be enough forcing into the
area to support a period of possible thunderstorms Thursday
night, and perhaps heavy rain. The rainfall associated with
this system will need to be monitored very closely as this
could be a significant rainfall event with amounts potentially
nearing an inch. Rainfall amounts of this magnitude could
certainly bring renewed hydrologic concerns, especially
considering the several ice jams which are currently in place
on some of the Buffalo area creeks.
The system dry slot will punch through the region late Thursday
night into Friday, as the low pressure center continues to
deepen as it lifts through Ontario into Quebec, forcing a
powerful cold front through the area. This will bring a quick
end to the precipitation as the cold front swings through. Cold
air will rapidly rush into the area in wake of the front, with
temperatures dropping into the 20s through the day Friday. There
will be the potential for a flash freeze given wet surfaces
from all the preceding rain.
In addition, an increasing pressure gradient coupled with drier air
and cold air advection into the region will likely result in a
period of strong gusty winds. The potential for the strongest
wind gusts look to be in the typically favored west-southwest
flow areas northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area over to Rochester. Momentum transfer
profiles suggesting these areas will likely see gusts of 50 to
55 mph, perhaps even higher. Wind headlines will need to be
considered as the event nears.
The incoming colder air will allow for a brief lake response later
Friday into Friday night, this will especially be the case east
and southeast of a fully open Lake Ontario. A few inches of
snowfall is not out of the question.