wolfie09

Here is the euro by wed morning, not including any enhancement/LES.. Still switching us to a decent amount of ice and then back to snow.. Shows enhancement like crap which is not surprising..

This is pretty much the only mixing we see in North central NY on the Para..

Good ole canadian.. Sticking to it's guns.. This would be giants vs pats 2007 all over again..

Who know man lol Just been a tough year.. This year definitely feels like a transition zone lol The tug has a multitude of ways to score..Every few winters we get one of these stinkers.. I expect to see more of this in the future which is more typycal of a normal winter..

Tonight will be another night of radar watching for you southern boys..

Fulton must of seen most of its accumulation early on while the band was consolidated.. I can't see them getting a foot overnight with an overnight radar like this ..

15/1-25/1 ratios, which is why i don't use 10-1 with lake effect lol

Wow Fulton really cleans up with that WNW flow lol Sharp cutoff as usual..

Latest high-res guidance suggests the eastern end of this band will come onshore across Oswego and Northern Cayuga counties, producing local accumulating snow. These types of bands often drop their heaviest snow right near the shoreline given the strong land breeze forcing, and can have notoriously high snow-water ratios. That said, in the weak flow environment there is always a good deal of uncertainty as to whether the heavy snow will fall over the lake or just onshore. Given this uncertainty, have not raised any additional headlines yet, but did increase POPS and snow amounts to 3-6 inches in a small area from Fair Haven to Oswego for tonight. If the heavier portion of the band stays offshore, amounts will be lower. On the flip side, if the heaviest portion of the band extends to the shoreline for an extended period of time, warning criteria amounts are within the realm of possibility.

Suprised to see all snow forecasted at the moment Tuesday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Snow showers. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%

Lake effect snow is expected to re-develop tonight. This may bring moderate accumulations, especially near the lake in the western portion of the county.

Behind each cutter we get some enhancement./ LES which is all we have to root for these days lol

The euro was MEH.. Few inches of snow with quite bit of ice.. It's the wrap around/enhancement that has the best shot for anything decent.

I hate to say but it seems west wind is a transition zone lol According to the rose plots it's the least likely wind direction..We are just the passer by for WSW and WNW lol I think a straight west wind happens 3.5% of the time, almost always a northern/southern component to it .

The flow is WNW which is usually a Fulton special, we wasted 10 hours of a Westerly wind during yesterday lol

Can the Canadian score a coup? Doubtful lol

Brutal out at the moment, some of the worst I have seen this year, combo of wind and snow.. Looks like a band has finally organized, to little to late, should start heading down south soon..

Missing out on a beautiful westerly flow lol On and off bouts of mod-heavy snow.. By 10pm we start to go more northerly..

Yea very unlucky, even pulaski has had 9" and 12" LES events over the last 10-14 days.. This system is coming is pretty much 2 parts , as we see something from the primary and secondary.. Here is the intial burst on the gfs as we flip over to light rain/drizzle/dryslot.. Probably will have to wait for the meso-models to get into range for any Enhancement on wed..

Moving on into the last 36 hours of this period...it still appears that a complex...double-barreled low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast Monday night through Tuesday night...with an incipient cutter-type low tracking by to our northwest...and a secondary coastal low developing and tracking northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines. While some differences in timing still persist with respect to the arrival of this system (with the GFS remaining notably more aggressive than its ECMWF and GEM counterparts Monday night)...it is appearing increasingly certain that the majority of our region can expect a round of widespread precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night...for which PoPs have been further bumped up into the categorical range. With respect to ptype...our airmass should initially be cold enough for mainly snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. An incursion of warmer air out ahead of the initial primary low should then induce a mix with and/or changeover to rain for a time later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening...before developing cold air advection in the wake of this system`s trailing occluded front tips the balance back more toward snow during the second half of Tuesday night. When we open this period on Wednesday...a large closed low will be centered over southern Ontario. As is typically the case with such a mid level system in this area...there will be the likelihood for Miller B cyclogenesis to take place along the New England coast. The vast majority of the medium range ensembles and operational packages concur with this climatology by depicting a primary surface low in the vcnty of Lake Huron with a secondary storm taking shape near the Gulf of Maine. The transference of energy to the coastal storm will dramatically weaken the primary cyclone to our west...virtually eliminating the risk for any wind issues as would otherwise be the concern. This will leave accumulating snow as our primary weather... with the most problematic amounts being found over the Eastern Lake Ontario region where some lake enhancement will also come into play. As the secondary storm chugs across the Canadian maritimes and its slow moving mid level support exits via the St Lawrence Valley...a cold west-northwest flow of -12c H50 air will flow across Lake Ontario. This will likely keep a well defined band of accumulating lake snows in the vcnty of the Tug Hill/Oswego County...with a much more muted lake response found east of a nearly completely frozen over Lake Erie. Otherwise scattered light snow showers will be possible within the moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the mid level support.

Active pattern..

Couple days later we deal with this again lol Another double barrel low..