wolfie09

0z euro pretty much unchanged, if anything it looks a little snowier to the south..

Icon was a cutter with all rain for days, garbage lol Shows the next system as all snow, so yeah..

So much of that precip is on the back side lol We only see 5"-6" from the primary low.. Wether u wanna believe the amounts or not is up to you but that is 100% snow with the secondary/enhancement..

Going to be a sharp cutoff no doubt, right now we have 30-40 mile window on the euro.. 18z at 10-1 We also see a good amount more precipitation which obviously explains some of it..

Where have we seen this before haha The Nam has a quick 5"-6" Tuesday afternoon similar to the euro before flipping to sleet and then back to snow.. One thing I have noticed is even with the secondary becoming the primary the lakes low is not in hurry to leave, has more effect on the wind field then the coastal storm does..

And yet they have double digits by wed morning without the lake getting involved yet lol It's also easier counting on the lake with enhancement/wrap around then with pure lake effect..At least for me.. Gfs and euro keep it going until early thursday afternoon!!

Just to show kuchera doesn't always over do everything, ksyr is at 4.4" at 10-1 and 3.7" Kuchera..

Nam really wasn't that bad.. Yea we flip quicker with less intial snow but makes up for it with some nice enhancement ,,

The overall biggest correction appears to be to the 12Z NAM which is hundreds of miles farther south with its low track involving the Midwest compared to yesterday's 12Z run. Today's 12Z NAM though is a somewhat stronger outlier with energy it has ejecting through the base of the trough Monday and into Tuesday which leads to a rather well-defined 500/700 mb deformation zone and closed low feature crossing southern MO through central/southern IL. The global models are a little more modest with this by comparison. Bigger differences arise though as the heights falls shift across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday along with secondary low pressure that forms near or along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast and lifts northeast near coastal New England. The 12Z NAM/GFS and 12Z UKMET all tend to focus the stronger height falls a bit east of the 12Z ECMWF and even more so the 12Z CMC which gradually ends up slower with its upper trough progression. This translates into a surface low track that especially by 48 hours and beyond is farther south and east relative to the track over the lower Great Lakes. The 12Z GEFS mean is close to the NAM/GFS camp, and suggests that the UKMET may be a bit too far south and east, but that the CMC and ECMWF are too far to the north and west. Regarding the secondary low evolution, the 12Z CMC is the biggest outlier as it focuses its low much farther inland over the Northeast whereas the remaining guidance all focuses secondary low development and track much closer to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline or just inland of the coast through Wednesday. Given the latest model clustering and trends, the preference will be toward a general model blend through 48 hours, and then leaning toward a compromise of the 12Z NAM/GFS and also incorporating the 12Z GEFS mean thereafter. One key point again though is that the NAM is a bit of an outlier with its stronger deformation zone/height falls across southern MO and central/southern IL which is generally in the 48 to 60 hour time period. Confidence, especially after 48 hours remains a bit limited but is rather good now prior to this.

Low end and high end..

1st guess map..

In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this still-early juncture it still appears that the best potential for a significant (i.e. warning- criteria) snowfall will lie across the far eastern Finger Lakes/Eastern Lake Ontario region and especially the North Country...where the potential for any mix will be lowest and the briefest...and consequently the precip should remain in the form of snow the longest...potentially leading to total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over a rough 36 hour period. Elsewhere...snowfall amounts should decrease with increasing southwestward extent owing to the progressively earlier arrival of the milder air and the attendant wintry mix/changeover to rain...though current projected snowfall amounts and the potential for a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will still likely eventually warrant Winter Weather Advisories. As has been pointed out previously...it goes without saying that all of this remains highly dependent upon the exact track/strength of the initial primary low and how quickly the transfer of energy to the secondary coastal system takes place. A more northwesterly track to the primary low...a stronger primary low...and/or a delayed transfer of energy to the coastal system would all point to a warmer overall scenario and less snow areawide...while the opposite conditions would favor a colder scenario and more snow overall.

It's a crappy model still in it's long range..lol It has a mix when all other guidance show Snow..

Eps looking better than previous runs.. Obviously can't pay much attention to global models and backside enhancement..

Maybe me and matt can finally see a decent west wind event on the backside, embedded within the wrap around moisture..

Para looks really good as well.. Foot and half at 10-1 verbatim..Just like the euro minimal mixing..

Euro was hardly any mixing, with trace amounts of ice/sleet.. Max 850mb temps are now 0c instead of +2c and max surface is mid-upper 20s..

Nice little 2 days event.. ...Oswego County... Oswego 17.0 845 AM 2/10 2 day snowfall Fulton 17.0 942 AM 2/10 2-day snowfall

Time to start riding the euro lol Looked even a little better then lastnights 0z..

Nice event near minetto..

A little over 2" of fluff here, nice little morning surprise.. Snowing decent with the sun trying to peek out..

Our next storm system is currently seen on Water Vapor imagery dropping southward over the northern California coastline. The closed upper level low will dip southward along the California shoreline today, and then advance across the Rockies and Plains early next week. Another shortwave will phase with this low Monday, deepening and negatively tilting the upper level longwave trough. This upper level long wave trough will deepen a surface low that will again cut through the Great Lakes region. Tuesday will start on the cold side with advancing precipitation starting as all snow late Monday night and Tuesday morning. A primary low will pass through the Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, moderating temperatures to above freezing for most of the area. This will change the snow/possible wintry mix over to plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night for much of WNY. A secondary lee side low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday night and as this secondary low deepens, the primary surface low to the north of Lake Ontario will begin to weaken. This will limit the northward push of milder air such that precipitation southeast and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night may remain as all snow, or just mix with a few hours of sleet/rain. Here is where confidence is high enough that there will be potential for significant synoptic snows and will issue a winter storm watch starting 11Z Tuesday. Cold air will wrap back across our region later Tuesday night and Wednesday, and change precipitation back over to all snow. The closed upper level low will remain across southern Canada and a persistent flow of moist, westerly flow will likely continue light snow Wednesday, with greatest accumulations across upslope areas...and later in the day lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario. With modest snowfall continuing Wednesday and into Wednesday evening we will continue the winter storm watch through Wednesday evening.