wolfie09

Rgem still on the warm side of guidance with about 2"-3" or so today.. Starts to make up for it during this day wed, with still plenty more snow to go..

Nws really counting on this with "up to a foot" wed night.. Hrrr shows 5"-7" during day today for oswego county.. Nam products slightly colder, pushed back changeover time by an hour lol

Yeah i see that lol Looking at P&C forecast , today's forecast is ok but will probably finished towards the bottom number.. Tonight looks to high, probably more of a 1-3"/2"-4" type deal.. WEd forecast looks fine with light wraparound snow most of the day , wed night has the most favorable wind direction but that don't mean crap this year lol So we'll see how the lake treats us.. Today Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 26. Southeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tonight Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet between 1am and 3am, then snow after 3am. Low around 25. Southeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 33. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 9am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 9am and 11am. High near 34. West wind 6 to 13 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

And the NWS increased totals lol Granted this is till thur morning instead of wed afternoon..

Obviously should be a little different up here.. NWS going with 5"-11" through tues night.. Wednesday Snow showers. High near 34. Southwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow after 2am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tomorrow will be a quick 4"-6"+ and thats it, flip back to snow around 2 am and catch some preicp from the developing coastal.. Then we see what WED holds .

And that's only till 5pm wed, NWS has snow till 18z thursday..

Total

Yeah i agree.. Here is the 18z nam by 7 am wed..

Next week we could actually miss a couple systems to the south then back to cutters haha Still holding out some hope for this lol

Hi rez canadian is all over the place haha It's still on the warmer side along with the rgem, changing us over 3 hours earlier then the Euro/Nam. TT is the worst lol Counts everything as snow, even rain ..Piviotal is way better but doesn't house the hrdps..

I'm not sure if this is an inhouse run model by the WPC or an Actual Forecast lol NCEP WPC 2.5 KM

No more downsloping, which made no sense to begin with lol Nws forecast of 4"-8" tomorrow looks pretty good, then we mix..

Here was the 0z euro on the front end.. All of this falls in 6 hours between 18z and 0z...

Here is the front end on the Nam.. We should see some 1"-2" hour rates tomorrow afternoon..

Little different low placement?

your acting as if the icon gives no snow lol

Icon showed all rain almost all week..It was a straight cutter with no secondary .. It now has 4"-6" on the front end, it has already FAILED..

whats more funny is that is not the enire event..Only valid till wed PM.. Nws still has pops at 90% wed night and thur..

P-type? The darn model only shows rain vs snow, it can't even show sleet/zr

As far as the weather/precipitation goes...expect initial light snow to be across much of WNY by the start of this period. A southeast wind will bring gusty winds across WNY, especially the downslope Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shoreline corridor where gusts will reach 45 mph. There is some hints (00Z NAM) that the LLJ may be stronger than forecasted...and if this is the case we could see downslope wind gusts in excess of 45 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. The southerly flow and LLJ will aid in transporting milder air northward through the day such that the snow will transition to a wintry mix. There will likely be a brief window of sleet/freezing rain as a warm layer noses northward aloft. As the surface temperatures warm through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening a period of plain rain will be found. Some areas of WNY could see a half an inch of rainfall...this in addition to what QPF falls as snow/wintry mix. Rain plus melted snow will bring ponding of water across low lying areas. Along the warm front and locations northward isentropic accent and low level convergence will bring ample lift for a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. Snow will begin to intensify by midday Tuesday, with widespread moderate to heavy snow producing snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour across areas east of Lake Ontario. This heavy snow will continue east of Lake Ontario into the evening hours and here is where winter storm warnings will be in place for snowfall Tuesday - Tuesday night in excess of a foot. The heavy snow will end as a well defined dry slot passes across the region and the LLJ shifts eastward resulting in a loss of low level lift. Tuesday night colder air will sweep across the region from west to east. Along this occluded front there will likely be additional light snow. In addition later in the night a cold west wind will bring lake enhanced and upslope snows...off Lake Erie...and more pronounced off Lake Ontario where lake waters remain open. By Tuesday night areas inland across the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region will have times of little to no snowfall. Wednesday colder air will continue to push across the region with 850 hPa temperatures lowering to around -12 to -15C. It will be a brisk day with a tight pressure gradient bringing a west to northwest wind producing gusts to 50 mph across the Lake Plain. Factoring in the colder temperatures it will feel like the upper single digits to mid teens throughout the day. Snows (both lake enhanced and upslope) east of the Lakes Wednesday will begin to taper down as the surface low and upper level low lift off to the northeast. However it will remain cold enough with ample moisture for lake effect snow to become predominate. Streamers of snow are possible east of Lake Erie...with minor accumulations of an inch or two across the hills. Off Lake Ontario a band of snow will bring more impressive snowfall totals, with lake snows through the night. The band of snow will shift southward through the night, reaching the southeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario near Oswego County Thursday morning. While light lake effect snow will end off Lake Erie by late Wednesday night, it will not be until Thursday midday before inversion heights fall and moisture depletes that lake snows off Lake Ontario will end.