Strong winds are possible across the region Sunday and Sunday night with potential for gusts to reach 70 mph across the Lake Plain. This has us looking at the top recorded wind gusts on record for our climate stations of #Buffalo and #Rochester. #nywx
I was involved in a "Derecho" years ago, just months before hurrican sandy hit in CNJ..
Winds were worst then sandy itself..Most of the trees were already destroyed before the "hurricane" hit..
Even Fat man christie had to take a helicopter trip over the region lol
A few inches on monday is all we have right now lol..
Could be decent, expecailly for the tug, with decent ratios..
Not sure what the NWS sees as they are talking "south" of the lake which is opposite of what the models are showing..
Everything Google is the best..lol
I went Chromebook years ago and never looked back lol
Starts up in about 2 seconds... Microsoft is the worst haha..
Just went Google pixel as well, awesome, especially camera..
...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY...
One of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through
eastern Canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance
packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track
of the system...including a minimum central pressure that is
forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will
have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our
region...including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and
steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind
profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as
2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately
strong subsidence in the wake of the system...a large portion of
these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective
parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop
fold...which in looking at the 1.5PVU field...is being advertised to
lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into
consideration...current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind
gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night...with the potential
for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in
several years...but given the range of this forecast (Day 5) and
model oscillation...will hold off on headlines while beefing up the
dangerous threat in the HWO product.
As far as some more detailed timing...a powerful cold front
associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our
forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than
recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance
from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead
of the front early Sunday morning...then winds will shift to the
southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may
slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front...winds will
then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds
could gust to between 60 and 70 mph...particularly in the corridor
that extends from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester
and the Thousand Islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c/km are
forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet...
giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little
trouble mixing. Should these winds verify...we could anticipated
widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a
heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind
though that at this point...it is ONLY a forecast...albeit one with
increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated
forecasts and possible statements/headlines as we progress through
the rest of the week. As a side note...the front will be accompanied
by some showers on Sunday...mainly ahead of it...and then several
hours after it moves through.
They are no different, stop using tropical tidbits during marginal situations lol
We have a WWA for a mixed bag, which is why the para looks like it does lol
Pretty much all i have to root for winter wise at the moment lol
Euro like with several inches on monday, verbatim would be a bigger hit then last event, here..
6z para brought the 850mb 0c isotherm line into northern Florida during the 1st week of march..
Today was my 14th day with a low below zero with none in december..Been a weird winter lol