wolfie09

Strong winds are possible across the region Sunday and Sunday night with potential for gusts to reach 70 mph across the Lake Plain. This has us looking at the top recorded wind gusts on record for our climate stations of #Buffalo and #Rochester. #nywx

I was involved in a "Derecho" years ago, just months before hurrican sandy hit in CNJ.. Winds were worst then sandy itself..Most of the trees were already destroyed before the "hurricane" hit.. Even Fat man christie had to take a helicopter trip over the region lol

A few inches on monday is all we have right now lol.. Could be decent, expecailly for the tug, with decent ratios.. Not sure what the NWS sees as they are talking "south" of the lake which is opposite of what the models are showing..

Everything Google is the best..lol I went Chromebook years ago and never looked back lol Starts up in about 2 seconds... Microsoft is the worst haha.. Just went Google pixel as well, awesome, especially camera..

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY... One of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through eastern Canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track of the system...including a minimum central pressure that is forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our region...including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as 2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately strong subsidence in the wake of the system...a large portion of these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop fold...which in looking at the 1.5PVU field...is being advertised to lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into consideration...current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night...with the potential for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in several years...but given the range of this forecast (Day 5) and model oscillation...will hold off on headlines while beefing up the dangerous threat in the HWO product. As far as some more detailed timing...a powerful cold front associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead of the front early Sunday morning...then winds will shift to the southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front...winds will then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds could gust to between 60 and 70 mph...particularly in the corridor that extends from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester and the Thousand Islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c/km are forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet... giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little trouble mixing. Should these winds verify...we could anticipated widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind though that at this point...it is ONLY a forecast...albeit one with increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated forecasts and possible statements/headlines as we progress through the rest of the week. As a side note...the front will be accompanied by some showers on Sunday...mainly ahead of it...and then several hours after it moves through.

Here is the snowstorm on the para..

What's more funny is that article I posted the other day was all based of TT snow maps, giving it an even worst name lol

They are no different, stop using tropical tidbits during marginal situations lol We have a WWA for a mixed bag, which is why the para looks like it does lol

TT shows sleet as snow.. The Icon only shows snow vs "rain".. The real FV3

It will be short lived anyway..Gfs has winds backing west and then WSW over the next few hours.

Yeah, nice little surprise at the moment.. Like some 50-1 fallen from the sky LoL

Yeah, turns out to be a pretty big east coast snowstorm..

Bowling ball type system on the GFS..

Storm to watch day 7/8..

Pretty much all i have to root for winter wise at the moment lol Euro like with several inches on monday, verbatim would be a bigger hit then last event, here..

So you're saying there's a chance, in 7days, behind a giant cutter lol

I'm moving to Northern maine, they never have to worry about p-tpe, keep snowpack till july lol

See you in a couple weeks lol Hopefully one last gasp at winter.. Looks like a good 3-4 "bermuda highs" over the next 10 days or so..

Enjoy it while you got it lol

A little over 2" here, ripping out at the moment , large fluffy flakes..

6z para brought the 850mb 0c isotherm line into northern Florida during the 1st week of march.. Today was my 14th day with a low below zero with none in december..Been a weird winter lol

Up 26° in the last 4 hours.. Feels like 40 lol