wolfie09

We will just have to wait till Sunday night-monday to see how the lake responds..I would think we should all see at least a few inches in Oswego county.

Meso models look pretty good for the tug and southern parts of the county with your usual "rip off zone"..Let's see how it pans out. I picked one just for freak...

One thing in your guys favor is the wind will be dying down Monday afternoon/evening when flow become more favorable.. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph

They have me just in the 4"-6" range which is exactly what the 3k shows and little less than the rgem, so probably not terrible here. They haven't caught on to the wnw band yet, tomorrow they will have Fulton at a foot, watch lol Actually the map only goes till 4pm, rgem develops the band in the early afternoon hours, so we'll see..

A nice band on a WNW flow develops monday afternoon..

Rgem by 1 pm monday.. Fwiw

Where have i seen this before..Hmmmm..lol 3k hates me more that matt haha If i have learned anything this year it's congrats mexico/parish lol Snippet from Buffalo

High pressure will extend east to our area from the northern plains on Wednesday. While this is the most consistent solution...there are packages that depict a weak inverted trough splitting the feature. This would result in a little snow across our region later Wednesday and Wednesday night...but given the inconsistency with this solution and the fact that it is somewhat of an outlier...will back off on pops and only use slight chc 20s. Again...this is a low confidence solution for Wednesday afternoon and night...so be sure to check back for a more concrete forecast.

Model guidance has been incredibly consistent on this event over the past 4-5 days, and continues to result in a high confidence forecast for high impact wind gusts. Peak wind gusts are likely to reach 75 mph on the lake plains northeast of the lakes. This includes the Lake Erie shore extending northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, and also in Jefferson County northeast of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong farther inland away from the lake plains, but still easily warning criteria with peak gusts of up to 65 mph across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier, western Finger Lakes, and points southeast of Lake Ontario to Lewis County. The strongest winds on the lake plains will be Sunday afternoon when wind direction is WSW. The strongest winds from the interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes and southeast of Lake Ontario will be Sunday night when winds become due westerly. Winds of this magnitude will produce widespread power outages that may last for days, along with extensive tree and powerline damage. Property damage to shingles and siding is likely, and buildings under construction and older buildings that are starting to deteriorate may experience significant damage. RAIN... A wing of warm advection will reach the western Southern Tier late this afternoon, then spread across the rest of the area this evening. This initial area of isentropic upglide will produce a few scattered rain showers. East of Lake Ontario, temperatures should rise above freezing prior to the arrival of showers, with any freezing rain risk farther east in northern NY. Another stronger push of warm advection and isentropic upglide, along with DPVA ahead of the strong trough, will spread across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and continue through early Sunday morning. This will produce more widespread rain showers across the region, with rainfall amounts of around a quarter inch common, a little higher in upslope areas. The warm advection rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast Sunday morning. There will likely be another narrow band of rain showers right along the surface cold front later in the day. TEMPERATURES... The temperature trend over the next 36 hours will be decidedly non- diurnal. Temperatures tonight will rise steadily in a strong warm advection regime ahead of the system. Temperatures will start this evening in the 30s, then rise well into the 40s by late tonight. Highs will occur Sunday morning just ahead of the cold front, reaching at least the mid to upper 50s in most areas. A few 60 degree readings cannot be ruled out in downslope areas on the lake plains. Behind the cold front, temperatures will nose dive in the afternoon, reaching the lower 30s by early evening across Western NY and upper 30s across central NY and east of Lake Ontario. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 20s in most areas. LAKE EFFECT SNOW... Strong cold advection behind the system will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 8K feet over Lake Erie and 10K feet over Lake Ontario Sunday night. Ample synoptic scale moisture will be found in the wrap around regime of the system as the main mid level trough crosses the region. Off Lake Ontario... Temperatures aloft will get cold enough to support a lake response by early Sunday evening. Initial WSW boundary layer flow will focus the early part of the event across Jefferson County and the northern Tug Hill. Boundary layer flow will veer westerly overnight into early Monday morning, focusing the majority of the intensifying lake response on the Tug Hill. Upslope flow will play an important role in enhancing snowfall amounts, with true warning criteria snow likely confined to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau. The very strong winds will be a much bigger concern than actual snowfall amounts. Winds gusting to over 60 mph Sunday night will likely produce blizzard conditions in and near lake effect snow bands and in the upslope zone of the Tug Hill Plateau. The only question is whether the lake effect bands can be persistent enough in any one area to produce blizzard conditions for 3 or more continuous hours, which is part of the criteria. The upslope flow into the Tug Hill should keep the snow fairly persistent across the higher terrain even if the pure lake effect snow bands are being fractured by the strong winds. With this in mind, the Winter Storm Watch east of Lake Ontario has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. The worst conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region, including southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and western Lewis counties. Off Lake Erie... The lake currently has extensive ice cover, but the very strong winds will likely result in the fracturing of the ice field with plenty of openings developing. In addition, conditions are favorable for an upstream connection to Lake Michigan banding, along with some enhancement from synoptic scale convergence near the base of the mid level trough. The snow amounts will be contingent on the idea that breaks will develop in the ice field, but that seems like a reasonable assumption given the strength of the wind event. The airmass will become cold enough to support a lake response by mid to late afternoon Sunday. Boundary layer flow is initially WSW, which will bring some snow to most of Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. When there is ice on the lake, lake effect snow often develops farther north than one would expect for a given wind direction, because an opening in the ice will often develop ENE of Long Point. Overnight Sunday night boundary layer flow will veer more westerly, carrying the lake effect snow showers into Southern Erie, Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. Snowfall amounts may reach 1-3 inches in parts of Northern Erie and Genesee counties, with 3-5 inches across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo and Batavia into the Chautauqua Ridge. The snow amounts are not the issue however, significant blowing and drifting snow will be the main concern. With this in mind, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late Sunday through early Monday for the blowing snow. Conditions may approach blizzard at times, but the weaker lake response will likely not allow these conditions to last for very long at any given location.

Yeah i agree but at this point i'm just trying to pad the stats I don't care how much stays on the ground lol.. I'm more of a snow falling guy then snowdepth.. 80% of the fun for me is the chase..

Damn Matt can't even win when it comes to wind

There is your storm on the euro ..

One after another lol You would think one of these would kick off some good lake effect on a westerly fetch, if we can get the Lp to stay put for a little.. Both American LR models have a good deal of lake effect potential in the distant future..

Ukmet came in North..

Canadian continues to be south, gfs north..

South and weaker on the 12z para for mid week..

Nws Buffalo Facebook..

On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon. This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario, though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County, as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow. While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night. However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state.

Euro still has zip for Tues/wed ..Barely even a surface reflection ... Meanwhile the GFS/para/icon all go through southern NY State with several inches of snow..

Kbuf loves to go with the "high end" on their expected snow maps, every single event..This one is no different. Probably why they bust every event lol 35% probability of 4" for Pulaski.. 0% probability of 6".. Expected snow 5".. If my P&C shows 2"-5" u better believe the snow map will show 5" lol

All i know is Kalb 30 yr avg went down like 5"-6" and the same can be said for Kuca.. Meanwhile they are doubling thier long range avg's along the coast..(over the last decade) Where i lived down in cnj , over the last decade, they have seen Five 60"(two of them 70") seasons with a long term avg of 22".. Some parts of LI avg 45-50" over the last 10 years, two-three times above the norm.. Something is going on lol We live in a much more "micro-climate" years vary greatly.. Fulton for example has seen only One 200" year in the last 12 but 5 such instances the previous 11.. All four years here have been below avg lol Is what it is..

Times are changing that's for sure..

After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will quickly transition to snow. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake effect snow parameters become favorable bands of snow will form to the east and then southeast of the Lakes. Ice on Lake Erie should limit the snow to just a few inches across Ski Country. However open waters of Lake Ontario and a west to northwest flow over the long axis of the Lake should bring a band of light to moderate snow inland. East of Lake Ontario snow accumulations could exceed advisory range...and will include this in the HWO. Of concern will be the still strong winds within this lake snow. These winds will create significant blowing of snow that will greatly reduce visibilities. Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A very tight pressure gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting initially 45 to 60 mph early Monday morning down to 20 to 35 mph Monday evening. Pressure rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg C by Monday evening. Northwest flow across the Lakes will result in lake snows especially east/southeast of Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations will be minor Monday, with perhaps just another inch or two southeast of Lake Ontario.