wolfie09

Euro continues to play catch up..

Here is the 12z ukmet.. Nothing wrong with a region wide 3"-6" especially with no rain lol

Rgem is a good hit for the entire county.. But with it being 10km it will stuggle with the finer details..

I'm riding the rgem all the way haha The Hi rez canadian which is one of the better LES models really shreads these bands due to the wind, so we'll see..

I think these late transfers have killed us lol It flips the winds from "westerly" to more "northerly"..

Nam now into range as well..

Canadian is the farthest south of the 12z runs so far.. About 1/4"-1/3" LE .. It also has the best ratios using kuchera..

Gfs more like 0.3"-0.5" LE..

0.40"-0.60" LE on the para..

Yeah the 6z euro was a little better once again, granted it was still heading south of us

Nws Not buying it.. Every model is an outlier but the euro.. This would result in a little snow across our region later Wednesday and Wednesday night...but given the inconsistency with this solution and the fact that it is somewhat of an outlier Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Still up for debate on how far north this goes..

Yeah, big time bust on temps if the HRRR is correct.. Using"mouse over" hrrr has a high of 40 today.. This is the warmest frame east of ontario..

Where is my warmup lol Current temp is 37 degrees, forecast high of 55.. How much more warming are we gonna do? Going to be shortlived either way.. As the cold front crosses the region between noontime and 6 pm temperatures will begin to sharply fall.

Starting to hear some thunder..

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...JEFFERSON... LEWIS...CAYUGA...OSWEGO AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES... At 1014 AM EST, radar indicated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 27 miles west of Cedar Point State Park to 6 miles southwest of Battle Island State Park. Movement was east at 70 mph. Winds in excess of 35 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms along with brief heavy downpours. Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Geneva, Fulton, Canandaigua, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Ontario, Stony Point, Newark, Williamson, Marion, Carthage, Lyons, Palmyra, Lowville, Pulaski, Clifton Springs and Clyde. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 between exits 44 and 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 52. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Euro slowly caving.. Still gets squashed just in time to miss cny lol But it's a start.. Ukmet looks like a few inches region wide as well...

Yeah, almost all the snow on the 12z euro was lake induced, ratios should be higher than 10-1, you would think..And it has nada for Wednesday.. 0z running now..

The only draw back is next 7-10 days is highly dependent on lake effect behind two cutters, but I guess we should be used to it.. The only pure snow event is a weak wave that would favor wny/sny at the moment imo..

lock it in.. This is what we have to look forward to next winter lol

Another potential light event just before this said cutter..Shown on both American models.

Icon is really far north..

It's weak but could dump few/several inches region wide..