wolfie09

Overall models had the right idea..

Nice track...

Nam looks good.. Maybe some south shore enhancement as well..

Winds are backing just enough to tease me with that secondary band lol

As a robust shortwave digs southeast from Manitoba on Wednesday...a trough carving across the Upper Great lakes will lead to nominal cyclogenesis within an established inverted trough over the Upper Mid West/Ohio Valley. The resulting weak surface low will lead to further strengthening of the aforementioned baroclinic zone...which will effectively be pushed northeast to the western counties of New York. Strong frontogenetic forcing with this boundary will lead to fairly widespread light to occasionally moderate snow...which could accumulate several inches between late Tuesday night through Wednesday. From this vantage point though...amounts will probably stay JUST below advisory criteria. Weekend.. The latest model trends in the 12Z guidance are quickly taking the potential for another wind event off the table. Instead, the emerging consensus takes a much weaker low over us, or even to our south which would produce a modest snow event. Temperatures will also not warm much if this current track verifies, with near average temperatures Saturday as the system moves through. Following the Saturday system, a deep trough will become established across the Great Lakes and New England. This will bring well below normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday, along with at least some lake effect potential east and southeast of the lakes. The cold air will have some staying power, with the latest 8-14 day outlook from CPC continuing to show high probabilities of below normal temperatures across a wide swath of the nation. Expect mid winter cold to last through the first 10 days of March.

Wouldn't be suprised to see this next event press south at the last min and keep us out of the heaviest precip..

Nice streamer overhead at the moment, not as nice as down south but i'll take it ..

Power restored

Power flickering on and off.. Now I know what it feels like to live like the Amish.. They are probably getting good laugh at us who need electricity lol Expected to be totally back by 330, I'm hoping..

Terrible conditions lol Hate the damn wind.. Lost power several hours ago.. No phone service out this way so relying on 3g lol

Like 2" an hour stuff right, true blizzard conditions.. Gonna be nearly impossible to measure but looks like several inches on the ground..

Nam and Icon on the northern side of guidance..

In the meantime a nice band has formed, might as well enjoy it while i got it lol

Guess it's a little better than i thought.. Region wide 3"-5" at 10-1..

Euro was pretty blahhhh Not much at all over the next 10 days minus some light snow wed.. Cutter next weekend no more.. It's now a very weak northern stream disurbance staying seperate from a piece of energy off the coast..

Here comes the unfavorable shift lol Both american models shifted south towards the canadian..Only one run but hopefully not a trend lol

Forecast uncertainty increases by Wednesday. The GFS has been very persistent over the past few days in bringing a notable clipper system across the Great Lakes, with a shield of accumulating snow crossing our region. The ECMWF has been equally persistent in keeping this feature much weaker and suppressed, with no more than a few light snow showers in our area. The Canadian GEM continues to be a compromise solution with a light snowfall across the region. Given the continued model uncertainty, will keep POPS in the chance range for now. If this snow does materialize, it will end later Wednesday night as the system moves to the eastern seaboard. A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the western Ohio Valley and cross the Central Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday afternoon. With this system precipitation will overspread the area, initially as snow then changing to rain as warm air advection increases ahead of an accompanying cold front. Winds behind this area of low pressure will increase and wind headlines may be needed for Sunday. Behind this area of low pressure a large trough will persist through this time period with the potential for snow showers across the area and lake effect snow off of both lakes, especially the more ice free Lake Ontario, where a multi lake connection looks possible.

LR Nam quite a bit north for mid week..

What a bust wrt temps.. Maybe we get a little spike just before the CF passage but will not be making the mid-upper 50's..lol

Not so much of a cutter anymore on the euro, at least for this run.. Verbatim would be close to 1/2' front end thump-light rain-wrap around snow..

A reminder of what the euro looked like 24 hrs ago..