wolfie09

Canadian has it as well.. Actually they all have it, American models just farther east..

Slight increase here or there.. Wpc

Seen this posted on another board.. Subject: GFS Version 15 model implementation schedule is paused until a date to be determined. The GFS with the FV3 core shows continued improvement over the legacy GFS for many forecast parameters. EMC is aware of two issues: -The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close to freezing. Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values. -The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere that became more prominent after late September 2018. EMC is investigating both issues and any necessary changes will be tested. After sufficient testing and evaluation an announcement will be sent when NCEP Central Operations (NCO) is ready to start the formal 30-day IT Stability Test. The model implementation schedule is currently paused during the investigation. In the interim, there will be no change to the availability of products from the operational GFS model and real-time parallel. Feedback from the community examining the model output has been crucial in improving the model. We encourage continued examination of the real-time parallel and retrospective data that can be accessed as highlighted below: -The output data from the Global Forecasting System (GFS)

171 mph gust recorded at mount washington breaking the all time feb record..

May be we can get this to trend a little north over time but at this range it looks like everything will pull east..

That's it for sat lol

Weekend system is pretty much a non event on the euro, an inch or two for the lucky ones lol It's actually gonna set the stage for the MA/SNE coast to finally see a snowstorm with the follow up energy..

12z euro, little drier for midweek.. Region wide 1/3" LE or so..Some heavier amounts around the finger lake region, 0.4"-0.5"..

6z euro

I guess ratios may be decent..(especially south of Ontario) ..Headline Worthy Snowfall Wednesday and Wednesday night... Mid level troughing returns to the upper Great Lakes Wednesday associated with shortwave energy dropping southeast through the northern plains. Surface reflection will be minimal at first but slowly take shape as it moves across the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes. Forcing increases due to increasing low level warm air advection from a tightening thermal gradient that lifts into western New York. Signals suggest that the better precipitation axis will be aligned within this gradient. Near optimal thermal profiles in the dendritic growth zone with corresponding isentropic ascent looks to be focused over a good portion of the area south of Lake Ontario. With the good snow ratios expected, should be able to generate a solid 2-5 inches of snow as the low level circulation tracks across the area through Wednesday evening. There may be a narrow corridor of slightly higher amounts possible toward 6 inches focused from Buffalo to Rochester into the western Finger Lakes. Accumulations will be harder to come by with drier mid level air across the North Country.

Keep in mind kuchera is showing 15/1-20/1 ratios.. It will be a cold storm but we know that doesn't necessarily translate to higher ratios..

Rgem has been slowly trending north as well..

Hrw members look pretty good..

Euro is all snow over the weekend albeit light..

After this system over the weekend the GFS has the lake firing up with a Westerly wind flow for 36 hours Gonna come down to the track of that system..

0z euro for mid week. Kuchera showing ratios of 15/1-20/1, not sure if that's believable or not..

Still need a little trend east for this weekend..

Gfs products staying south..

I'll be watching this change as we draw closer lol Always does..Para also shows quite a bit of lake effect over the weekend-early next week.

Thats some stong confluence or something lol Goes almost due south..