wolfie09

Between 8"-9" , one at the end of december and one in the middle of Feb..I have had many 6"-9" events just not the "big" one lol Its been hard to sustain a west wind for more then several hours.. I have accumulated about 1000 fantasy Lake effect inches though..

Juts please for once give me a big Lake effect event lol

Para not far behind..

Gfs is a complete whiff..

The pattern then looks to become more active by the time we get into later Sunday and Sunday night. A shortwave and attendant developing low pressure system will be tracking through the deep south Sunday, reaching the mid-atlantic coast Sunday night. A broad area of accumulating snows will develop within increasing isentropic lift north of this system across the Ohio Valley and potentially extending as far north as New York State. Model consensus is to keep the bulk of the accumulating snow south of the area, with only the far northern edge sneaking into the southern half of New York state, potentially giving the western southern tier a few inches of accumulation, mainly Sunday night.

12z euro is 0.3"-0.4" for the entire region.. Actually Ksyr makes it up to 0.5" Kbuf 0.3" Kroc 0.4" Kfzy 0.4"

Might as well keep an eye on the trends with the sat system as well, u never know lol

Pops raised to 80% for tuesday..

Our best hope at the moment..

Sunday night...the deepening sfc low will track northeast across the Carolinas to about Long Island. Am leaning more towards the ECMWF solution rather than the GFS...which has a track that is at least 100 miles further to the southeast. While the strongest frontogenetic forcing will remain well south and east of our region in the proximity of a 40-50kt LLJ...there should be enough UL jet support to keep steady accumulating snow in place for parts of the region. This will mainly be the case for sites southeast of a line from DKK to ROC and ART where several more inches of snow could accumulate. Given the trend of the storm system from all of the ensembles...it is looking less likely that anyone would pick up warning criteria snowfall. However...an advisory criteria snow is still in the cards. Will continue to highlight this event in the HWO product. Stay tuned.

Wpc A potentially more significant system will move up the coast quickly behind the first, bringing renewed snow to the northeast. Much uncertainty still revolves around this second system. While it is likely to be a more potent low, the track will be heavily dependent on the first system from Saturday, which will impact the position of the strongest baroclinic gradient. A stronger system Day 2 would likely produce a further SE track on Day 3, and the guidance has begun to trend that way overnight

Euro stinks.. 0.10-0.25" LE just like the GFS and ukmet.. For whatever reason the 6z and 18z euro were much more amped then 12/0Z , keep that in mind lol

6" is the top number for me. Fast mover, not seeing a "big one out of this".. Nam bring the 1/2" line to Syracuse, blend of euro/Nam would yield 4"-6" here.. Hope to start seeing a west trend soon lol

It may shit the bed but this is probably the last chance at a decent Lake event..I think we start to warm up towards the middle of the month..

First and last time u will ever see me in the "bullseye", may need to take a screenshot..lol But in all seriousness LES potential looks decent from afar.. Ksyr could make a run at kbuf next week if they can get some wnw/nw flow behind the trough on wed..

Such a persistent cold regime will also lead to a daily potential for at least some lake snows east and southeast of the lakes... with this looking to be best later Monday night through Tuesday night when available moisture will be most favorable. This said... there also remains considerable uncertainty in wind direction and consequently the placement of any lake effect...and there is also the matter of Lake Erie mostly being ice covered...which will help to limit the response off that particular lake. With all of the above in mind have thus mostly continued with a mixed bag of chance PoPs downwind of the lakes...save for east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday when the more favorable synoptic moisture and more open waters of that lake appear supportive of a period of likely probabilities. Outside of any lake effect areas there may be some more general snow showers on Tuesday in tandem with the approach/passage of a trough and the aforementioned increase in moisture...with mainly dry conditions otherwise prevailing.

Warm air coming from somewhere..

Yup, was just about to post that..

I'm not sure how the snow-liquid ratio can be "much higher" then the previous event when all the CoCoRaHs reports had 20/1+ ratios lol

Model guidance has started to come into a bit better agreement and with that better confidence exists that our area will be on the borderline of getting advisory level snow accumulations. For the moment, it seems most of the area stands a good shot at getting some snow, but the southeastern portions of the area should yield the best chance at more substantial accumulation. With northeasterly flow ahead of the system, cooling of the column and sinking dendritic layer into the saturation should yield much higher SLRs than the previous system, so QPF will be the main problem. Model guidance still has varying solutions with regard to this, and the northwesterly extent of backside deformation will likely determine this. That said, a light to moderate snowfall seems most likely to result...with the heavier accumulations off to our south and east.

6z euro had it over WV, 12z over the delmarva region..