wolfie09

Kbuf is 7" so a 4"-8" event is an advisory. 5"-10" and up can be looked at as warning criteria imo..

Warning criteria is 6" for NYC.. I personally go with the median, which is obviously 6" on a 4"-8" forecast.

That's only till Tuesday morning, the band should be transient in nature, starting WNW Monday afternoon and backing up WSW by Tuesday am, out ahead of the SW.. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday looks best for a prolonged WNW/NW flow ..

Looks like the NWS is going day by day.. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected. * WHERE...Extreme Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

That's only until Tuesday night, it may snow into Thursday afternoon near Fulton, would definitely be a couple feet in that area if it verified..

U mean like this? Lol

Arw is laughable, over 2feet just north of kfzy by Tuesday AM !! Haha Before winds are even supposed to be wnw, out ahead of the SW..Not happening..lol

Congrats Oswego.. Would be a fitting way to end the season..

Yes sir..Coming down nicely.. Cleared my railings/table this morning, i would guesstimate around an inch or so, maybe slightly more.. Trying to dink and dunk my way to a respectable season lol

Maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two of surprise snow.. Radar looks decent at the moment.. Finished with 1.25" yesterday.

Ripping pretty good out at the moment...Big fluffly flakes.. Forcecast today is "partly cloudy", not sure where this came from lol

Slightly over one full inch lol Still seeing some light steady snow, 28 degrees..

Prob about 1/2"-3/4" or so, continues to snow decent...

Could be a weak lake response tonight.. Tonight a WNW flow of marginally cold air, with lake induced equilibrium levels of 5-7K feet, will support a very modest lake response in the wake of this weak system. This will support some light lake effect snow south and southeast of Lake Ontario. In a northwest flow it is difficult to pin down exactly where steadier snows will be, with mesoscale guidance showing a possible connection to Lake Huron. Some models suggest this will develop near Genesee County, with others focusing on Wayne and Northern Cayuga later tonight. Either way, accumulation will again be limited with an inch or less at most locations, except an couple inches locally. Lake effect snow extend south of Lake Ontario from Orleans to western Oswego counties. Lowering inversion heights will allow this weak lake response to mostly end by daybreak Sunday.

Northwest flow will spread across the region Monday morning while 850mb temperatures fall to -18 to -14 deg C through the day. This will be the start to a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers east-southeast of the Lakes. A large mid-level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate this big trough resulting in periods of enhancement of lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes, especially Lake Ontario. Most of Lake Erie is covered with ice and snow intensity will be severely reduced across western NY during this period. While lake effect snow begins Monday, intensity will be light as inversion heights remain near 5K feet. It won`t be until winds become west by Monday night and an organized lake band forms across Lake Ontario with snow showers occuring across the Tug Hill region. An incoming shortwave trough will push the band to the north Tuesday morning while also increasing mid-level moisture and advecting even colder temperatures aloft. This wave will increase forcing across the region with light snow expected everywhere Tuesday. Another more robust shortwave trough will move towards the region by Tuesday evening with lake snows rapidly intensifying east of Lake Ontario. Moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible east of Lake Ontario Tuesday-Tuesday night and may warrant a winter weather headline. Westerly flow should eventually become northwesterly by Wednesday morning and snow will transition to Wayne and Cayuga counties. This shift may dampen the amount of time snow can pile up in one spot so will hold off on any watches at this time.

One thing to keep an eye on is the wind speed.. Last event kfzy only picked up 6"-7" as it was getting "jumped" over due to the wind.. Wind looks much "calmer" for this impending event..

Like i was stating earlier variable wind directions, oscillating bands.. Fot the most part Gfs doesn't have one wind direction for more then 12 hours or so..(at one time) Gfs just like the euro has precip over the area from mon night into thursday afternoon..

Obviously keep in mind the "global" euro only shows LES in trace amounts each 6Hr period, we know that is most likely BS lol First order of buisness is monday night-tues morning on a 270-280 vector..Probably the best shot at significant lake effect here.. Start a new job first thing monday morning, should be an interesting first few days...

From the southern tug to ksyr looks pretty good on the euro, all of oswego county should get a good dose with oscillating bands..

I did it to myself, several years ago i drew a triangle of the area i'd like to live, so what did i do? Moved north of it lol WNW is a common wind direction especially the second half of winter, more times then not it's more "westerly" then "northerly" , i can't tell you how many times i missed a band by a couple miles(north) in fulton.. That's why going just off wind direction can be deceptive as 280-300 flow can be considered WNW but have two totally different outcomes.. Atleast with a straight west wind (270 vector) it can only go one way lol I don't think the NWS has mentioned 270 flow yet this year haha..At least i still have 2 more feet then i would of if i still lived in fulton..

Canadian shows this as well.. Obvioulsy can't take a 25km global model seriously when it comes to lake effect but to show 2'+ max is pretty impressive nontheless..

In the early going i'm thinking this is another south of tug event.. Makes sense giving a potential 280-290 flow.. About a 12 hr window tues morning of a more "westerly" flow out ahead of a shortwave..Winds should veer more WNW/NW behind the SW .. U can tell by the NWS wording "vicinity" of the tug hill not "on" lol

280 flow should promote a band through central oswego, probably keeping me on the northern fringes..We shall see.. This will encourage a more significant lake response...with a long 280 fetch for the activity off Lake Ontario allowed to blossom into what SHOULD be an intensifying plume of moderate to heavy snow in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. On Tuesday...a steady flow of -20c H85 air over Lakes Erie and Ontario will keep accumulating lake snows in place. The snows will likely pick up in intensity...as the deepening cold air will allow the cap to further lift to more than 10k ft. This is pretty `healthy` for this time of the season. Several inches of snow will be possible across the Southern Tier...while warning criteria snowfall will be possible near the Tug. Elsewhere...an approaching bundle of energy digging through the base of the deep longwave trough may promote scattered snow shower activity. It will be quite cold on Tuesday for an early day in March. Temperatures will NOT climb out of the teens for the vast majority of the region. Normal highs at this point are close to 40. Finally for Tuesday night...the flow will be a little more northwesterly in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. This should direct the lake snows a little further south...catching more of the south shore of Lake Ontario. Mins will be nearly identical to the night before...being in the single digits away from the lakes.

HWO A storm system will pass by well to our south late this weekend. This system will have the potential to generate several inches of snow across western and north central New York late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning...with the greatest snowfall expected across Oswego and southern Lewis counties. A very cold airmass following the weekend storm will support accumulating lake snows Monday afternoon through at least Wednesday night. Significant snowfall will be possible in the vicinity of the Tug Hill plateau.