wolfie09

You can see the European was a touch to far west for us..

In other news I did get my 5th below zero night, low of -2..

Look at the improvements from D3 compared to D6.. Models get much better as we get closer, right now they are kind of suckish lol Stick with the ensembles and wpc at this point..

It's not bi polar it's called day 5-6 lol You guys just overreact so quickly.. Like the gfs is going to nail the timing of the CF 6 days out lol

This afternoon several shortwaves are rippling across the Pacific, forming eventually a stronger and deeper shortwave trough along the west coast Sunday. These features will eventually form a trough of low pressure over the Plains early next week. Cooler air within this trough will create a baroclinic boundary across the Ohio Valley separating a much warmer airmass that will reside within a Southeast ridge of high pressure. This baroclinic boundary will eventually waver through our region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a surface low passing either over or just to our south Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the placement of several features over the Pacific (and not sampled well by upper air soundings) that will need to come together over the western U.S., there understandably is quite a bit a uncertainty to the Tuesday - Wednesday time period. The cooler biased GFS would support shovelable snow across our northern 1/3 to 2/3rds of the CWA, while the ECMWF is not as far south with the surface boundary (and cooler air aloft). The majority of the GEFS ensemble members also support this stalled frontal boundary over our region though they remain with great uncertainty as to the placement. For now will continue with chance to low likely PoPs (as the surface low passes near us) during the Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe, with a mix of snow and rain.

Yeah they must be having issues .Kbgm is down as well..No OBS atm, radar or updated AFD..

Kbuf must be broken lol No afternoon AFD and no local OBS.. Looks like tonight is another below zero type of night..

As seen on the 12z gfs, potential is there for a decent event if we can time it right, which has been a bitch to do this year lol

Not that it matters 6 days out.. 18z vs 12z..

18z gfs is west. Lp goes right over us..

Wpc D7

It's hard to tell but the warm-up is ahead of a CF, u can see the temps crashing on the backside right as precip is moving in..But the euro warms us up again after several inches of snow as the surface low cuts to far west..

This is all I'm hearing.

Here is the Canadian for that system..

The extended forecast all hinges on next week's system.. 6z Gfs for example has 20s for high because the system goes south of us. The European tries lol Would be like upper 30s/low40s..

Looks like a wave riding a CF, looks better than in did yesterday..

Gfs with a little light-moderate snow with the northern stream as well.. While the track of the possible Nor`easter looks to not directly impact our region, its track to the northeast will influence how the model guidances handle the passage of a shortwave disturbance impacting our region. This shortwave trough axis appears to move through the Upper Great Lakes Friday night, crossing NYS Saturday evening into Sunday. As the shortwave passes, chances of rain and snow showers increase. Most of the precipitation falling through out this period should be snow, however there are chances for some mixed/rain showers in the lower terrain. The precipitation should switch over to all fall as snow during the overnight hours on Saturday into Sunday and remain as snow throughout the day on Sunday.

For a lower Rez model, ukmet shows lake effect pretty good, not that I believe it necessarily lol Kicks off some LES with the northern stream energy..

Yeah, European also had a sizable shift SE with the day 7 system, be interesting to see which way this one trends in the coming days..

Looks like a gradient type pattern in the LR, just need to be on the northern side lol Multiple impulses ride through the flow, some good, some not so good..If the gfs has a clue..

Looking at the 6z gfs, we miss about 5 storms to the SE, I guess that's better than seeing cutter after cutter lol Some weak northern stream disturbances and intermittent LES save give us at least something over the next 2 weeks, verbatim..Gfs is almost to active to get any sustained lake effect going..

Gfs is trying..

Yeah, it's Real.. It's an alert not advisory.. Very uncommon as temps have to drop into the 40s in S Florida.. They are still alive just dormant lol

Lol. I didn't know that was a thing..It was for south Florida last week..Seen it on live rescue haha

Downgraded to advisory..Only expecting 3-5 iguanas.. Leapin’ Lizards! National Weather Service Issues Advisory for Falling Iguanas!