wolfie09

0z euro..

Wpc ...Trough and Developing Low in the East... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM Confidence: Average Considerable model spread persists through Day 3 with guidance still shifting the track of the coastal low expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and move over the Northeast through Friday. Both the operational 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS trended slower and farther inland compared to the previous run. The 12Z ECMWF is still farther inland than the 12Z GFS, particularly into Day 3, and is similar to the 12Z NAM. However, notable spread in both the 12Z GEFS and 00Z ECENS suggest uncertainty persists and further shifting of the track can be expected. Given the continued inland trend of the ECMWF and its similarity to the NAM, the preference will now include the 12Z NAM. The track of this low is sensitive to northern stream shortwaves that will be interacting, including a phase on Thursday and of particular concern is the reinforcing shortwave that reaches the Great Lakes Thursday night which will influence the track of the primary trough/low through Friday and where the phasing takes place over the weekend (beyond the current Day 3 outlook). The 12Z ECMWF slowed both features with this run, so the reinforcing northern stream shortwave is now technically slow in the 12Z ECMWF than the 12Z GFS, but the slower leading trough has shifted the track farther inland in the ECMWF than the GFS. The intensity of the components are similar among the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and NAM resulting in similar QPF magnitude. The 12Z UKMET and CMC made considerable shifts in their surface low track closer to the guidance consensus, but remain considerable outliers. The preference has been updated to include the NAM with the GFS/ECMWF and the caveat that much is still to be determined with the timing and intensity of the interacting components of this low is still relevant.

Latest models continuing to suggest the development of a significant New England coast low developing by Friday. This will produce considerable wrap around moisture. Thermal profiles by this time will be cold enough for all snow as 850 mb temperatures drop down to near -10/-12C. Moisture, upslope north-northwesterly flow along with an incoming shortwave will result in plenty of snow shower activity. Bursts of heavier snow quite possible along with gusty winds. Temperatures may fall later in the afternoon Friday as stronger cold advection develops. The New England coastal low will move from northern Maine to Newfoundland Saturday. Wrap around moisture will be moving eastward while the core of cold air traverses the eastern Great Lakes through the day. Although snow showers will diminish to just isolated showers east-southeast of Lake Ontario by afternoon, northwest flow will keep it cold and blustery. High temperatures will reach the mid 30`s across the Lake Plains and the upper 20`s/low 30`s across higher terrain

Nam vs euro

A look at the 18z nam..

Most of this comes overnight as well..

Lets get this 50 miles west lol Go big or go home..

Rain to snow..The wrap around is legit, just like Fv3..

Looks just like the Para!!

I'll give it a check soon, looks pretty good on the surface..

Good timing on the para as well.. Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, I guess we'll see..

For the most part the system on the para misses us to the east, maybe a late phase? It's all about the wrap around on the FV3..

Unfortunately recent trends in model guidance suggest the warm weather will only last for one day. A strong backdoor cold front will move south across the Great Lakes and New England on Monday. Depending on the timing of the front it may still be mild Monday morning. Developing N/NE flow and cold advection will then bring a return to well below normal temperatures later Monday through the middle of next week, with several days of highs back in the 30s looking likely. The backdoor cold front and a wave moving along it may produce some precipitation Monday before strong high pressure brings mainly dry weather thereafter.

Precipitation will end temporarily from west to east Thursday evening as the trough moves to the east coast. Model guidance continues to suggest the southern stream wave will produce a rapidly deepening low just off the New England coast, but this system will intensify too far east to have any direct impact on our region. Another strong northern stream trough will approach late Thursday night, then cross the region Friday. This feature will bring increasing chances of precipitation again. Temperatures at the surface and aloft will cool during this time frame as cold advection begins behind a pair of cold fronts. This will allow most of the precipitation to fall in the form of snow by Friday. The sharp mid level trough, strong cold advection, and steep lapse rates often seen in late March in such a setup suggest the snow showers may become squally Friday afternoon with bursts of heavy snow possible

Canadian gives it a try.. Maybe if we can get it more tucked in with some heavier precp rates.

The first half of the Long Term period will remain cold and snowy while the second half of the Long Term looks dry and warm. A trough-ridge-trough pattern will be across the Lower 48 Friday- Friday night and multiple shortwave troughs will quickly dive south across the Northeast. Cold air advection with promote steepening lapse rates while upstream moisture and enhanced lift provide enough for snow showers across western and north-central NY. Northwest flow will likely continue across the eastern Great Lakes into Saturday. While snow showers will be diminishing due to increasing subsidence from the west, snow showers will last the longest southeast of Lake Ontario. There may be a window of time that enough cold air reaches Lake Ontario Friday night into Saturday that lake enhancement causes snow showers to increase in intensity southeast of the Lake. A few inches of snow are possible during this time. A large area of high pressure will drift east into the Great Lakes region by Saturday afternoon. Lingering snow showers will come to an end by Saturday night and the core of the cold air will move into the Canadian Maritimes. This will start our warm and dry period with temperatures reaching seasonable levels. Warm air advection will begin Sunday-Monday with temperatures climbing into the 50`s.

Nice man..Good eye!! Don't know how u caught that lol.. If u stayed straight on centerville and caught the next left would bring you to route 2 near the Richland Circle K, my local convenient store lol

Could be a couple/few inches for the higher elevations especially if it comes in overnight..

Yeah a bit to far east.. Probably some light rain flipping to some non accumulating snow

Haha yup.. I work right there at the "Fulton Group North America"..I live right off the other side of Centerville road on Route 48..

Quick burst of snow..

Difference of about a mile on my walk home today..