wolfie09

Hi rez all the way for me lol And no I don't count the 12k Nam ..haha .Take a look at the GFS lol

18z LR Hrrr.. Would of matched up nicely with the 3k/hrdps as it's still snowing..

Hi Rez Nam and Hi rez canadian have the right idea here Go big or go home lol

Latest 3K Nam..

For tonight precipitation is expected to expand in coverage as a S-N oriented LLJ develops near the deepening surface low. This jet will bring copious amounts of Atlantic moisture over eastern Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, and convergence ahead of the jet will bring widespread rain showers across our eastern zones. Dynamic cooling through the evening hours will push the entire thermal profiles to at or below freezing resulting in a change over to snow...likely across the higher terrain (mainly Lewis County). We will have the highest PoPs from the Finger Lakes eastward, while chance PoPs will remain in place for areas west of the Genesee Valley. Overall snow totals tonight will range 1 to 3 inches on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. During the day Friday the deep Atlantic moisture over New England and southern Quebec will fold westward back over our region as the second upper level low drops by our region just to the west. This abundant moisture in the lower levels, combined with deepening cold air and increasing low level lapse rates will result in lake enhanced, and upslope snow showers through the day across WNY, and then shifting eastward to areas east of Lake Ontario. This second wave of snow will have greater accumulations than the snow originating with the initial coastal low and shortwave. Also this second wave of snow will have higher snow to liquid ratios...and allow the increasing winds to create blowing snow. Temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will drop to around -7 to -10C...not quite cold enough for pure lake effect snow...but cool enough that we should still see some enhancement. The moist, northwest flow will also generate orographic lift snow Friday and into Friday night. While accumulations will be minor through the first half of Friday...the deepening cold air and increasing northwest winds will begin to increase the snow accumulation Friday afternoon across the higher terrain...and then everywhere by sunset Friday night. This period of late Friday to Friday night is when the bulk of the snow for this event will fall. Winds... Winds tonight will be light across the region, with an inverted surface trough extending across our eastern zones from the passing coastal low. Once the surface low passes by our latitude, a northwest wind will rapidly increase Friday midday through Friday night. Gusts will generally be 30 to 40 mph, with occasional gusts to 45 mph along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Temperatures...Lows tonight will remain just above freezing for much of our CWA. The airmass will warm a little Friday morning before the coastal low passes by to our east, and a much colder airmass invades the region from the northwest. Temperatures will likely begin to fall through the afternoon hours, and continue to fall Friday night with overnight lows in the upper teens across the higher terrain and lower 20s near the Lakes. The combination of winds and temperatures will make wind chill values drop into the single digits across the region Friday night.

Pretty much copied and pasted the euro lol

Warning issued for 6"-10".. Advisory for Wayne and N.Cayuga 3"-6" HWO into Kroc..

I'm not sure how much u can trust the global models with the wrap around portion, always seem to have trouble.. Canadian and GFS probably have a couple inches here..Looks much different than the hi Rez guidance obviously.. With that being said the euro has at the very least been consistent especially here with right around 1"-1.25" LE..

I like where I stand with this one at the moment.

6z high Rez Canadian had near a foot just by 2am sat with probably another 6-8 hours of snow to go.. 12z coming out now .

Some short range guidance, may still be going..

16" at 10-1 and still going lol

3k is a crush job..

Out to hr 54..Lock it in..lol

6z euro..

A strong shortwave diving across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night will `capture` and subsequently intensify an already existing coastal storm off New England. Cold advection and the circulation of deep synoptic moisture around the backside of this late season storm will result in a quick changeover from mixed precip to all snow... with measurable accumulations expected regionwide Friday and Friday night. This will include SIGNIFICANT accumulations east of Lake Ontario due to orographics...so will maintain a winter storm watch for that area. Its well worth noting that the snowfall will have limited impact on travel during the day Friday...as an ever increasing sun angle should limit accumulations on roadways. Accumulations will be most evident on grassy and elevated surfaces...but this will change Friday night. It will turn quite windy as well, with gusts over 35 mph possible as cold air pours back into the region. The northwest flow lake effect and upslope snow will continue through Saturday morning before tapering off from west to east Saturday afternoon as the strong coastal low begins to move into the Canadian Maritimes and away from the region. Additional light snow accumulations are possible Saturday morning. Temperatures will be well below normal, with highs in the 30s

Not much change here..