wolfie09

Compared to last night's 0z..

Euro is a good deal faster and farther south..

We flipped over to some big wet flakes which is interesting, not that it will amount to anything lol

Take it fwiw, which is not much..

I guess this is why this model hasn't been"released" yet lol

Slow warm up today, 33F with a sleet storm ongoing..

Small little area of decent snow on the euro, mainly over the tug..

Another transfer scenario, which is borderline in January let alone April lol Probably be a nice one for the Adirondacks into NNE.

12z para..

FrozenShutter / Getty Images El Niño intensifies: What’s that mean for spring weather? What’s up with this crazy weather? Here’s a look. Apr 03, 2019 By Chad McNutt Since mid-February, we have seen an intensification of El Niño. El Niño intensifying this late in the year is somewhat unique. Related: Photos: Powerful scenes of destruction from Midwest after bomb cyclone The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other forecast groups gave us plenty of notice El Niño was coming, but how it actually evolved was a surprise. El Niño vs La Niña Burt first, some background. Related: 2019 CattleFax Outlook: Weather, market outlook encouraging El Niño conditions occur when warmer than average water accumulates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Alternatively, La Niña conditions occur when cooler than average waters accumulate in the same region of the Pacific Ocean. Why is this important? El Niño and La Niña can shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across the U.S. and around the globe. When the tropical ocean either warms or cools, it can affect pressure gradients, which can in turn change atmospheric wind patterns that can alter precipitation patterns. For the U.S., El Niño events usually have a jet-stream that is shifted south. That can bring above-normal precipitation across the southern tier of the country, while producing less storminess and milder conditions across the northern tier. La Niña events, on the other hand, feature a jet-stream that is shifted north over the northern U.S. and Canada. That produces colder and stormier conditions over the northern tier of the country and less precipitation and milder temperatures over the southern tier. What’s happening now To quickly recap, El Niño has been very slow to form, then in January it essentially went MIA, and finally, in mid-February, El Niño began its much-anticipated push. That caused NOAA to finally issue an El Niño Advisory. Usually, by February and March, El Niño events begin winding down. Not this one. Instead, we have seen it intensify and with it, a very active storm track has brought much-needed moisture to much of the western U.S. The wet conditions have reduced the area considered in drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor by over 10 percentage points over the last month (see map above). Another way to look at the drastic change is to look at the percentage of the major cattle, corn, and hay-producing areas that are in drought. At present, 2% of cattle and 2% of hay are in drought and no major corn growing area is in drought. These are the lowest percentages since the three stats started to be tracked by USDA in 2011. Los Niños? According to Klaus Wolter, retired researcher at the University of Colorado who specializes on El Niño and La Niño events, “While most El Niño events tend to persist through winter and weaken into spring, they can get a late boost during the winter, with the most recent examples being the weak El Niño of 2014-15 that morphed into the Super Niño of 2015-16, and the weak El Niño of 2004-05 that had a late rally in early 2005, but then dissipated by mid-2005.” Wolter said that going forward, “The majority of the ECMWF [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] model runs show moderate El Niño conditions during early summer, followed by greater uncertainty in the fall.” Wolter said even though there is uncertainty in the fall timeframe there is still increased odds of a second El Niño winter (aka the rare Los Niños or the double-dip El Niño) given that the majority of climate models show El Niño conditions into early 2020. Wolter described that while two-year El Niño events are not quite as common as “double-dip” La Niña events (i.e. two or more years of La Niña), they have occurred six times since 1948: 2014-16, 1991-93, 1986-88, 76-78, 68-70, and 1957-59. The take home from all this is that El Niño is currently solidifying and will favor a wet and cool spring in much of the U.S (see the latest NOAA Seasonal Outlooks). If it continues to strengthen into the summer, the odds for a second El Niño winter in 2019-20 are better than 50%.

Gfs farther south and east..

A bit to far north on the euro. Still drops 1/2" LE in the form of snow. 6z para.

Worth monitoring..

Amazing how fast it goes from feeling like spring to feeling like winter lol Once the wind started and clouds rolled in , started feeling uncomfortable.. Even this upcoming weekend which originally was slated in the mid-upper 60's is now upper 50's, by the time it gets here will be 40's lol Seen some rumblings of the NAO possibly going negative next week which would keep us in a below average regime if it came to fruition...

For S&G ..

For the first time since July of last year, Rochester went through an entire month (March) without setting a new daily temperature or daily precipitation/snow record. Temperatures for the month averaged just below normal, making it the 7th time this decade that March finished with below normal temperatures.

If u look at liquid the 11.4" report had 0.50", just to the south had 6.8" on 0.40" LE.

Guess it's always possible..2 reports near Oswego, one near 8" the other under 2".. Pulaski reported 0.5" but where I work in Pulaski has a good 4"-5"..

Finished with right around 4" Imby..

Little over an inch so far, snowing moderately..

Let's see how this mid lvl trough treats us this evening.