wolfie09

Just starting to precipitate Imby.. Looks like about an inch liquid forecasted by the NWS and the majority of SR Guidance.

My kind of week lol I could do without the constant chance of showers but those are enjoyable temps, at least for me.

More potential rain this evening.. Forecasted 80-82 over the weekend, back in the upper 60's to start the work week..

Pretty much spot on for my back yard ..I live just under the "K" in Pulaski and am just in the 175"-200" contour.. Good job kbuf lol Thanks

High of 52 here so far, feels good lol

Tons of lightning with this cluster of storms. I was trying to beat it home, not happening lol

Best 3 day stretch of weather we've had so far this spring, low-mid 60s each day with full sunshine, feels more like 80° lol Did have a bit of mist this morning with some very heavy fog.

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New month same old below average temps lol

Nice line has formed. Severe thunderstorm warnings moving east.

Looks like we will see some more rain today but a nice Sunday and Monday.. My lawn guy came just in time lol A pair of frontal systems will move across the region through tonight, which will produce a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. High pressure will then ridge southward from Canada and into the Great Lakes providing mainly dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Some quarter size hail and blinding rain as I head south..Tons of lightning

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 941 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2019 NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-121-231800- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.A.0217.000000T0000Z-190523T1800Z/ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK CAYUGA OSWEGO IN WESTERN NEW YORK ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AUBURN, BATAVIA, BUFFALO, CANANDAIGUA, FAIR HAVEN, GENESEO, JAMESTOWN, MEDINA, NEWARK, NIAGARA FALLS, OLEAN, OSWEGO, ROCHESTER, WARSAW, AND WELLSVILLE

Syracuse, N.Y. -- Many Central New Yorkers spotted what looked like a funnel cloud during damaging storms Sunday afternoon, but it wasn’t a tornado, the National Weather Service said. One cloud was seen above the New York State fairgrounds, where a roof was blown off a building and dropped onto State Fair Boulevard. “We looked at the video of the funnel-like looking cloud that went across the fairgrounds yesterday, and it is a shelf cloud along the leading edge of a gust front,” said Dave Nicosia, the warning coordination meteorologist in the weather service’s Binghamton office. "There was no visible rotation." Rotation is the signature sign of a tornado. The weather service had issued a tornado warning after meteorologists spotted a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado at 4:12 p.m. over the fairgrounds. The video and the damage, Nicosia said, indicated that strong wind gusts were to blame. “Based on this and reports on the ground, this was a straight-line wind event between 60 and 70 mph,” he said in an email to the media and emergency managers. In a tweet this afternoon, the weather service said a microburst likely delivered those strong winds. Nicosia said the weather service won’t send meteorologists to investigate, as it does when a tornado or microburst is suspected.

Starting to fire up.. Some of these high Rez models have in excess of 2" locally..

All the local WU stations near or above 80° already. The 2 Nearest weather stations are sitting at 83°.. It feels like 80s for sure lol

More rain than I was expecting..I thought it was just some "scattered" t-storms lol Have my first cookout scheduled for 2 pm today..

At least we got in one beautiful day, picture perfect, low-mid 50's with full sun and no wind, feels like it 70° out.. Looks to be short lived though with high end pops for tomorrow and Monday, next 7 days looks to stay mostly below average for this time of year

Rain still holding on..1.3" liquid so far..

44°, light-moderate rain.. Some heavy rain streaming north through Syracuse..

Maybe I can catch a stray flurry or two lol

Sunday and Monday the medium range guidance packages remain in pretty good agreement on another mid level trough dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast...with an attendant surface low rippling northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys across the mid-Atlantic states...then to a position off the New England coastline. Such a pattern will likely result in yet another round of rain overspreading our region Sunday and Sunday night...before slowly diminishing Monday and Monday night as the system departs off to our east. With this in mind...have continued the upward trend in PoPs during this portion of the period... with high likelies Sunday/Sunday night gradually dropping back through the chance range Monday and Monday night. Otherwise temps should continue to average out at least a bit below normal...and possibly notably so on Monday should the colder ECMWF solution verify

The cold front will approach overnight, and a well defined southern stream wave will ripple along it from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes. This baroclinic wave will bring a period of enhanced ascent and moisture transport supported by a 50 knot low level jet. The low level dynamics will combine with a favorable upper level setup to produce a period of deep layer ascent across the eastern Great Lakes for a 4-6 hour period overnight. PWAT rises to around 1.5 inches, which is 2-3 sigma above average for this time of year. The result will be widespread rain, with a few corridors of moderate to heavy rain probable. Enough instability will continue overnight to support a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms, especially given the strong forcing. Total rainfall on average will likely approach an inch across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with somewhat lower amounts across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Embedded thunderstorms may produce a few local totals of over an inch. The risk of any flooding is low given the fast movement of the system, with expected rainfall amounts likely only resulting in ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Mid-level shortwave energy and the last in a series of surface lows will track past the lower lakes to our west across Lake Huron as it heads into Canada early Friday. Widespread soaking rains will gradually lift ENE and taper off across the forecast area by mid morning. As the surface low tracks further into Canada it will send its corresponding cold front towards and across Western New York. With ample moisture in place (PW values in the neighborhood of 1.25 to 1.50 inches) and a supporting mid-level impulse punching in behind the initial shortwave energy showers will likely become more numerous just ahead and then along the cold front. With that said, the severe weather potential at this point looks very limited across Western New York. However, NAM/GFS SBCAPE values do climb to ~700- 900 J/kg well to our east across the western Finger Lake region and into North Central NY. This is where SPC has placed a marginal risk. Also, it will become fairly breezy, especially down wind of the lakes, with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph. With the passage of the front look for showers to taper off from west to east. With strong cold air advection occuring temperatures will fall off behind the front quickly with temperatures peaking in the low 60s across far Western New York. Look for highs in the upper 60s to even low 70s across the western Finger Lakes into North Central NY.

Another rainy morning with this approaching cold front, 1/2" liquid so far, on and off moderate rain..

A rather convoluted short term pattern looks set to unfold over the lower Great Lakes from Tuesday night through the end of the work week. The front we can`t seemingly shake will make another return from the south by Wednesday as a warm front. This will first spread clouds and eventually rain northward by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There remains some uncertainty as to how far northward this front will wander as the GFS/NAM consensus favors it lingering over the Niagara Frontier rather than continuing to surge northward...at least for a while. This results in persistent rain chances with a strongly bifurcated wind field with strong easterlies over Lake Ontario and southerly flow south of the Buffalo area. The first wave runs down the front late Wednesday night into Thursday with the first surge in PWATs. The consensus favors 0.50-1.00 inch of rain with this first slug of moisture without and real push for the front behind it. Thus, its position is relatively similar as yet another wave is set to track down the front Thursday night into Friday as substantially stronger warm advection starts ahead of this second low pressure passage in the short term. PWATs head toward 1.5 inches with this surge of warmer air and modest instability looks present. Thus, rainfall could be a bit more impressive as this second wave passes. Likewise, warm air takes up residence over the area late Thursday into early Friday, so temperatures will quickly run up above normal for a bit. The trailing cold front looks to come ripping through on Friday. A quick turn to westerly flow with this front will bring cooler lake air over the Buffalo metro area, which will knock temperatures down rapidly. However, farther east, with a later frontal arrive, will mean a quite warm Friday before the best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms arrives with the cold front and onset of drier air into the CWA