wolfie09

Day 5-7 looks wet on the euro and the weather prediction center..

As we end the week...there is a suggestion that a robust shortwave in the northern branch will make its way into our region from the Upper Great lakes. This would once again increase our chance for some showers and thunderstorms while introducing a very cool airmass for the ensuing weekend. In fact...ensemble guidance suggests that cooler than normal weather will persist through the second full week of the month.

Nice "crisp" August morning..

Time to start going back down lol

SWS At 1247 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Mexico Point State Park to near Weedsport. Movement was northeast at 30 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms along with very heavy downpours. Locations impacted include... Fulton, Pulaski, Central Square, Weedsport, Cato, Fulton, Volney, Richland, Palermo, New Haven, Phoenix, Ira, Conquest, Savannah, Mexico, Port Byron and Orwell. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 36. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle

Some very heavy rain over the area between 2-4 pm according to the high res Canadian..

More heat is a coming.. A typical mid summer pattern will take shape Friday through early next week, with zonal flow confined mainly to along and north of the Canadian border, with a dominant upper level ridge across the southern U.S. extending into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The bulk of the more organized rain chances will stay north and west of our region Friday through early next week in closer proximity to the westerlies and better forcing. The vast majority of the time will be rain free in our area, although a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the afternoon and inland from the lakes. A southwest flow through the period will likely produce sizable stable lake shadows that will reduce or eliminate the chance for convection across most of the lake plains. Temperatures will continue to creep upward with day to day warming beneath the building ridge. Expect highs to reach the mid 80s at lower elevations by Friday, and then mid to upper 80s at lower elevations Saturday through early next week. Humidity will also creep up with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s over the weekend.

Had some pretty dense fog this morning...Woke up to a chilly 56° which is pretty close to normal..(avg 55)

Models in full winter mode with a 50 mile jump NW last minute..

Should be a pleasant day today..

Upgraded to an excessive heat warning..NWS has us getting to 90° under mostly cloudy skies, we'll see about that lol Currently 75° with full overcast.. Mostly cloudy and hot, with a high near 90.

It has been cloudy all morning at work in Pulaski, keeping temps in the low 80s, decent little breeze too..

Kbuf oderate to strong instability will develop this afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints rise into the mid 70s. A stout EML plume will be found from the central Plains extending across the Midwest to the western Great Lakes. The weaker, eastern extension of the EML may reach the eastern Great Lakes later today. The EML will provide some capping initially, but may also support more robust updrafts by late today if forcing becomes strong enough to allow ascending parcels to breach the cap. Convection late this afternoon and evening may evolve in two ways. First, scattered showers and storms may develop along the southern edge of stronger southwest flow off Lake Erie where convergence will be enhanced, from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. This home grown convection would develop mid to late afternoon, then exit the area to the east and south this evening. Second, a convectively generated vorticity maxima moving out of the Midwest may support additional thunderstorm development this afternoon in eastern Lower Michigan and southwest Ontario. These storms, if they materialize, may cross Western NY during the early to mid evening. Both the lake breeze convection and upstream convection should exit the area later this evening, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight. PWAT rises to around 2 inches today, so any storms that develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Deep layer shear is weak today, but if the developing upstream convection grows upscale into a cold pool forced MCS, a few storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out this evening across Western NY

Pops have been decreased the last couple days down to 30% both today and tomorrow, so NWS not necessarily expecting this to hit us..

Looking much better next week..

HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... An area of rain will move across Oswego County through 100 p.m. and bring an additional inch of rainfall to some locations. This combined with rain that has already fallen will cause water to pond on roadways, especially in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage. Small creeks may also approach bankfull. Motorists should remain alert for water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Absolute monsoon out there right now..Over an inch LE so far..

Heaviest rains missed just to the north overnight, guess it's payback for last week lol Local WU Stations picked up 1/2" liquid, 5 miles north just under 2" LE..Still looks like plenty more rain to get through today

14° drop the last hour at the airport, nice breeze has kicked up as well.. Obviously the DPs still suck lol

Friday Surface temp and DP Saturday Luckily Sunday starts a downward trend with both surface temps and DPs, most of next week running at or just above normal, according to the European..

Obviously can't take these numbers at total "face value" ..

Flash flooding"potential" Tuesday night through Wednesday.. .Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday...  Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts.