wolfie09

3k Nam really is a terrible model ..lol

Low-mid 40s overnight, felt great this morning..lol

Must be nice to have some elevation lol Dropped into the 40's overnight..

Where are you guys getting these numbers from?

Little cool down after this front moves through on Wednesday..

Neutral probabilities for the end of the month into the beginning of meteorological fall..

I'm thinking All NWS offices.. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-63hazsimp_lake_snowaaa.pdf

Lake Effect Snow warnings are back. One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process. Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you. The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow

Warning issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 300 PM EDT.. * At 150 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Oswego to near Lodi, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Pulaski, Clayton, Central Square and Weedsport. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51.

Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019 Areas affected...central and northern NY...north-central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081558Z - 081730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The potential for strong to locally severe gusts (45-60mph) will probably increase through midday and into the early afternoon as a squall line moves from western into central and northern NY. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over western NY as of 1150am EDT. The 7am Buffalo raob showed meager buoyancy and relatively weak westerly flow from just above the surface through 300mb. Surface heating has occurred this morning with temperatures on the NY Mesonet rising into the upper 70 to lower 80s degrees F immediately east of the squall line. KIAG measured a 40kt gust at 1039am. The NY Mesonet has up until recently only observed 33mph at 3 sites thus far. However, the NY Mesonet Batavia site very recently observed a measured gust of 47mph. RAP forecast soundings show several hundred J/kg MLCAPE developing by early afternoon across central NY. As the mid-level shortwave trough over Ontario and the lower Great Lakes progresses eastward, storm intensity is forecast to increase aided in part by the associated forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization. Isolated wind damage owing to gusts ranging from 45-55mph (locally up to 60mph) is possible.

About 1.6" of liquid over the last 2 days, looks like more potential heavy rain this afternoon/evening..

Radar looks good for some heavy rain, pouring out at the moment..

Lucked out with about 3/4" of rain..

I'll be lucky to see a few showers myself by the time it makes it here..

We could always use the rain..

I don't necessarily enjoy the cold, just hate the heat lol Pleasant weekend shaping up.. Going to feel like the beginning of football season..

Made it down to 50° here, looks like some mid 30's near Lake placid/Saranac lake..

While the airmass will not be uncomfortably cool...it will be cool enough to establish some instability over the lakes...and that could lead to some nuisance lake effect rain showers and even some waterspouts. Yes...Lake Effect. Its getting to be that time of year.

There is high confidence that we will experience a gradual cooling trend during this period...as a regime featuring above normal temperatures will give way to refreshingly cooler than normal weather by the weekend. The cause? While a persistent ridge will remain in place over the western conus...the change to cooler weather will come as a result of stacked storm system that will drift from the western shores of Hudson Bay to the eastern shores/far northern Quebec. This will open the door for cooler Canadian air to push south into our region for the weekend...and likely beyond this forecast package into the new work week