CPC banking more on the emcwf/cfs..
Most of our model guidance predicts a time-mean amplified pattern over North America during the Week 3-4 period. Both the CFS and the ECMWF forecast an anomalous trough just south of the Aleutians, but the trough is about 100m deeper in the CFS (-120m vs -20m). The rest of the Rossby wave over North America is of similar amplitude between the models, although the ECMWF positions the wave slightly further north than the CFS. As one might expect from the height pattern, the CFS predicts colder temperatures over Alaska than the ECMWF does. Both models predict anomalous warmth over the western CONUS and near to below normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS, but the CFS positions the most anomalous cold air over the Southeast whereas the ECMWF positions it over the Great Lakes region.
In-line with our calibrated model guidance along with our statistical MLR tool, our forecast favors above normal temperatures for most of the western and southern parts of the country and below normal temperatures throughout the mid-west and northern New England. Our forecast probabilities of above normal temperatures over Alaska are around 60%.