wolfie09

Quite a contrast in temps at the moment with mid-upper 40's in the Central and southern part of the county..

Already down to 37°, I think we'll best the projected low of 33°..

Last year my first frozen precipitation was on Oct 16th in the form of graupel, my first light snow accumulation was Oct 24th, so it's coming lol

Spectacular peak foliage will be arriving in the Adirondacks and Catskills this weekend, while other areas of the state are reaching near-peak and midpoint of change, according to volunteer observers from the Empire State Development Division of Tourism’s I LOVE NY program.

Here comes the rain...

Beat me to the punch lol Picked up about 1/2 liquid overnight.. Looks like plenty more to go..

We could see a little rain over the next 7-10 days..

The coldest air of the young autumn season will be upon us Friday and Friday night. Friday morning 850 hPa temperatures will likely start around zero Celsius across the region with early morning temperatures in the 40s only warming to the upper 40s to mid 50s under a wealth of stratocumulus. A few lake effect rain showers are possible through the day, with greatest chances southeast of Lake Ontario where the cooler air aloft will reside. Though temperatures begin to warm some aloft Friday night...a broad surface high will track to right over the region by Saturday morning. This will create excellent radiational cooling conditions...with clear skies and light winds allowing for temperatures to dip into the mid 20s (interior cold spots) to upper 30s (near the lake shoreline). Widespread frost or freeze conditions are becoming more likely for Friday night for a good portion of our area away from the Lakes. Saturday this surface high will advance to our east, with a southerly return flow making for a comfortable afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures peaking around 60F. The next system of note will arrive Sunday and Monday when a cold front approaches and will likely stall out near our CWA. Waves of low pressure along this front will likely maintain chances for showers for both Sunday and Monday.

Updated 8-14 Day Some "Abnormally Dry" conditions popping up in NY state..

Pouring out right now ... Nearing average for the month with about 4.5" of liquid..

Say goodbye to red and hello to blue...

Hurricane formation and potential track are difficult to predict 3-4 weeks in advance. Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes can directly influence weather over the forecast area and any hurricane can indirectly influence the forecast area by re-curving poleward and perturbing the mid-latitude wave guide.

CPC banking more on the emcwf/cfs.. Most of our model guidance predicts a time-mean amplified pattern over North America during the Week 3-4 period. Both the CFS and the ECMWF forecast an anomalous trough just south of the Aleutians, but the trough is about 100m deeper in the CFS (-120m vs -20m). The rest of the Rossby wave over North America is of similar amplitude between the models, although the ECMWF positions the wave slightly further north than the CFS. As one might expect from the height pattern, the CFS predicts colder temperatures over Alaska than the ECMWF does. Both models predict anomalous warmth over the western CONUS and near to below normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS, but the CFS positions the most anomalous cold air over the Southeast whereas the ECMWF positions it over the Great Lakes region. In-line with our calibrated model guidance along with our statistical MLR tool, our forecast favors above normal temperatures for most of the western and southern parts of the country and below normal temperatures throughout the mid-west and northern New England. Our forecast probabilities of above normal temperatures over Alaska are around 60%.

First fall foliage report of the season..

NWS Buffalo Lake effect archive updated to include 2018-2019..(13 events) https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=A

Yup, same here, just a little warmer during the day and colder at night.. Last 2 nights hit 43° with DPs in the upper 30's!!

Amazon coming to CNY? Would be a nice boost to the economy creating more than a thousand new jobs in central New York.. https://www.syracuse.com/business/2019/09/distribution-center-near-liverpool-would-be-2nd-biggest-in-world-is-it-amazon.html

Looks like Dorian may spare Florida and the SE coast after all..

Awesome pics/video man, think I may have to do a little chasing this year lol I've heard Selkirk state park is a good spot around here, about 10 miles west, something I'll be keeping an eye on..

A little bit of lake effect/enhanced showers as well as thick cloud cover.. Colder air aloft will continue to advect into the region with some minimal lake response expected east of the lakes as lake/850 mb delta ts near around 14C. Seeing isolated showers mainly over far eastern Lake Ontario and streaming into southern Jefferson, northern Oswego and Lewis counties due to lift from shortwave and lake response.

Still raining to boot..