wolfie09

Maybe it's delayed a few days but no chance on the Canadian...

So the gfs still trying to give us some snow around Halloween, Ggem and euro say otherwise..

Just under an inch liquid.. Continues to pour..

Following this system weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and New England from Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is again faster with the next trough coming into the Great Lakes, and again appears too fast when compared to ECMWF/GEM solutions and ensemble means. Given this, kept the Monday through Tuesday period dry and turning gradually cooler.

Canadian on Halloween..

Moderate to heavy rain inching closer.. Currently just some drizzle..

Small window around Halloween to see our 1st flakes...

So far in October we have just under 5" liquid, needless to say October will be quite a wet month...

We have some more mod-heavy rainfall on the way over the next 24-48 hours.. Look at that heavy LER near kbuf lol

Some LR goodies..

Personally don't really care to see "blue" lol We live in upstate NY, no need for negative anomalies.. The forecast is slightly warmer than"equal chances", which is fine by me.. Looks like they may expect a lot of Northern stream disturbances/clippers with the precipitation outlook..

Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter. Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. during winter, which extends from December through February. While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern often influences the winter, neutral conditions are in place this year and expected to persist into the spring. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple weeks. “Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This spring saw significant and historic flooding across the central U.S. that impacted nearly 17 million people. However, during the summer and early fall, drought rapidly developed across much of the South, with drought conditions now present across approximately 20% of the country. The 2019-20 U.S. Winter Outlook | December through February Temperature The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard. The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter. Precipitation Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

Estimated rain totals. Still pounding away.

This would of been one heck of a winter storm... 2.75" liquid and still going...

1.5" liquid so far and pouring...

If you're ever bored take a look at the snow depth for the past 65-70 years lol https://youtu.be/YwehzWN4c_g

Just hoping to see some flakes by months end..

Euro has a good amount of liquid over the next 48-72 hours..

Some fantasy land gfs..

Lock in our first flakes of the season...lol

Cool, cloudy and rainy.. Potential for some decent rain overnight...

We made it several degrees below the forecasted low temp...

Dipped below freezing for the first time this cold season..