wolfie09

Yup but very little lol

It does but 6/18z only runs to hr 90 on a few select paid sites.. 12z is starting up now on pivotal..

12z gfs is suppressed, what's new .

Icon really far west with the initial wave which it has been the last several runs..

All those analog years were monster seasons in C/N Oswego county, 200"+.. 95-96 was a record year in Fulton with nearly 280"..

Some nice streamers being shown by the hrrr on a nw Flow.. Check out that donut holes lol Every model has it, just in different locations.

Ukmet total precipitation..

Ukmet just like the icon is pretty far inland..

Gfs looking better for Monday night/Tuesday..

It`s all downhill from there however, as another cold front moves through Sunday night. While confidence remains high for well below normal temperatures, the overall synoptic pattern remains in question. Classic single band lake responses haven`t looked too promising for several runs with variable low level flow, or one with a predominant northerly component, but there are some concerns about a stalled boundary somewhere near or over the east coast which could impact parts of WNY or CNY. Timing for such an event appears to centered on Tuesday, but again confidence is fairly low on the overall surface pattern. Will continue to forecast chance for snow showers into next week.

Yeas sir , throws us a bone at least for one run..lol

Always have the next one guys

Hwo Low pressure passing by to the south of the region will produce widespread snow Thursday and Thursday evening. Temperatures will be marginal for accumulation during this event, so there remains some uncertainty with respect to snow amounts. At this time, only light accumulation is expected at lower elevations, with several inches possible across the higher terrain south of the Thruway and east of Lake Ontario.

Canadian says what snow?

And that's why the snowmap looks like it does lol Just like I mentioned yesterday with the nam and a bunch of euro ensemble members...Must be a warm tongue somewhere..

Euro has come on board with the other models, small event but we take it lol

Another even colder air mass will approach Saturday night, with an almost arctic frontal boundary likely to drop southward across the region in the Sunday timeframe. 850mb temperatures will drop to around -15C by Monday with excellent model agreement for this timeframe providing good forecast confidence. Temperatures will be well below normal by Sunday night with highs on Monday struggling to reach freezing. This also will support another round of lake effect snow. Much of this will again be behind the front in a northerly component flow which would provide a general snow shower regime rather than localized banding. However with temperatures aloft this cold and initial moisture from the trough there could be a good fluff factor and cold enough surface temperatures to support some significant accumulations.

On Thursday a trough will dig across the eastern Great Lakes which will encourage a cold front to drop across the region. Latest model guidance is in better agreement, with the GFS trending toward GGEM/ECMWF guidance which have consistently tracked a wave of low pressure from the lower Mississippi Valley to southern New England. The surface low will remain well to our south, but it will provide some synoptic moisture which will enhance the frontal passage, and then lake effect snow showers behind the front. There are minor timing differences with the front, but consensus suggests 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -10C behind the front Thursday evening, and down to -13C by Friday morning. This is plenty cold enough to support snow at all areas, and will bring the first real taste of winter to many locations. As is usually the case for our region, the bulk of the snow will be lake effect (or enhanced). A northerly component post- frontal flow will not support banding but will provide a general snow shower regime which will develop Thursday and last Thursday night and Friday. It`s difficult to pin down amounts in this flow but advisory amounts of 4+ inches in 12 hours are definitely in play. The greatest risk for these is across the western Southern Tier where upsloping and upstream lake connections will provide enhancement. Regardless of snow amounts, there is high confidence in much below normal temperatures with the forecast generally a few degrees cooler than model consensus blends

And still going!

Euro really bombs out off the coast of maine..