wolfie09

Some of the fluffiest stuff known to man is falling right now.. Really hoping the rgem has a clue which it usually does.. These can be sneaky events, light winds, super high ratios..

Just so we know, the NWS is talking about southern Oswego county not the tug.."SE of the lake" Redfield only 30% chance of snow on Tuesday night.. Fulton 80%..

Ukmet is also the farthest east model after days of it showing an inland solution.. Hopefully just a blip lol

Energy within the southern branch of a split mid level flow will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic region during the day Monday. This will energize a surface wave that will move along the aforementioned initial cold front...with the increasingly organized sfc low forecast to over Pennsylvania by Monday evening. As this wave approaches Pennsylvania...synoptic lift will strengthen over our forecast area. The two main sources of lift at this point will be provided by a powerful 150kt H25 jet over southern Ontario and increased H925-70 baroclinic forcing (mainly north of the Southern Tier). Have thus ramped by pops to categorical for all but the Eastern Lake Ontario region for Monday. The precipitation type will largely depend on the track of the sfc low...which at this point should be far enough to our south to allow for some wet snow to accumulate an inch or two over the far western counties...and also across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any deviation from the current forecast track will significantly alter these amounts. The well defined surface low is forecast to track from Pennsylvania to the coast of New England Monday night. While colder air will naturally push south across our forecast area in its wake...the cold air will be accompanied by a secondary arctic front that will introduce the coldest airmass of the very young season. Of more importance at this point though is that the deepening cold air on the backside of the system will allow moderately heavy pcpn within a deformation zone to spread across most of our forecast area. While it is too early to get a solid handle on snow accumulations... amounts in excess of four inches look very reasonable. This would translate into a plowable snowfall Monday night...with the highest accumulations/snowfall rates likely for the Southern Tier...and the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. This early season snowfall potential has already been highlighted in the HWO product and will continue to be so. Tuesday will be a day of transition...as the synoptic storm system will exit across the Canadian maritimes while sub arctic air will deepen across our forecast area. This will allow the widespread synoptic based snow to become more localized southeast of both lakes...where lake effect snow will blossom in the -16c H85 air. Several additional inches of snow can then be anticipated in the typical snowbelts of the Southern Tier and between Rochester and Syracuse. Otherwise it will be a brisk and cold day with temperatures not climbing out of the 20s. Northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will produce wind chill values in the teens throughout the day. Accumulating lake snows will then be focused southeast of both lakes Tuesday night...as the axis of a large surface high will move from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Moderate to heavy lake snow will be found over Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties...with a single plume of heavy snow likely across Oswego county. Meanwhile...flurries and light snow showers will be possible most elsewhere with the mercury tumbling into the teens. At these levels...temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees below mid November norms

They are obviously expecting snow lol Veterans Day A chance of snow before 8am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday Frequent snow showers. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I'm sure it will say something different when it's updated between 330-430 pm..

Euro with a big ice storm day 8/9..

Nice consensus for 3 days out, still waiting for that last minute shift lol..

Either way we take lol At 10-1 region wide 6"-12..

Gfs at same time..

Nice track on the cmc, pretty similar to the gfs.. Not sure I buy the lack of precipitation on the nw side..

We could see a couple/few inches tonight as the band reorganizes and winds back Westerly..

Nam now in it's wheelhouse..

Sws issued for this band, 1 inch an hour stuff.. It's been chilling just to my south for a while now lol

Euro is farther west and warmer..First half of the event we fight mixing/rain..

My first taste at some moderate snow.. Band looks to be slowly pushing south..

SNow starting to pick imby.. Never can tell where the bands will set up on a NW flow..

Radar back up.. Little light lake effect snow at the moment..

Gfs looks to be joining the "consensus" , actually looks pretty similar to the Canadian..

This is no ordinary November cold though lol Here is Oswego county Tues morning during the"height" of the Storm, we don't get above 24° all day..

Anyone see the radar for Altmar? Me neither.. Coming down decent right now, big fluffy flakes, must be the back edge..