wolfie09

Could be a lot of rain, who knows lol Would probably take my chances since I enjoy weather (events)..

Ukmet tries to bring her back..

All comes down to timing as usual..Between the trough swinging through the great lakes and cutoff meandering off the SE coast.. Majority of guidance shows a change over to snow on the backside for whoever is under it, something to watch at least

Earth has always had an expiration date lol We aren't here forever.. Watched a documentary not along ago about Mars being our "savior" lol I think it had something to do with the alignment of the Earth and sun.. Anyways looks like we may have a mixed mess on our hands next week..

This forecast period starts out on Monday with a complicated split flow upper level pattern from the mid CONUS to the eastern Seaboard. One southern stream wave will be supporting stronger low pressure system riding northeast just off the East Coast while another southern stream upper level trough dives across the southeast CONUS. Finally a northern stream trough will be sliding across the Upper Great Lakes. Though the initial system off the East Coast should stay east of here into northeast New England through Monday night, the ECMWF and Canadian indicate as other two systems slide toward the Lower Great Lakes and northeast CONUS that precip in the form of mixed precip may try to expand over at least our eastern areas from Rochester and Wellsville on to the east and north into the North Country. Sfc temps look right on the edge for rain/snow and based on warm nose with max Tw aloft staying above 0c, there may be some sleet mix in as well east of Lake Ontario. All the while, latest GFS keeps second southern stream too far east of here to produce much if any precip late Monday into Monday night. Kept main mention of precip on Monday night and mostly east of Rochester. Will need to keep eye on this time though for possible mixed precip. Too much uncertainty to mention in the HWO though at this point

2 potential storms next week.. Euro was keying on the 2nd.

Snowing pretty good here.. Some green returns popping up over the crib..

Whole week to figure this one out..

Make sure your attachments aren't full.. Or that the file size doesn't exceed 1.95mb.. Go to account-Attachments..

Little outdated, made 5 days ago..

Looking out beyond this period into the middle to latter portions of next week...the medium range guidance packages have diverged considerably over the last 24 hours...which for the time being results in at least somewhat lower confidence in the return to milder temperatures persisting beyond the end of this period.

A little SW flow ahead of the next front?

Snow starting back up here.. Could be a sneaky little band somewhere that dumps an inch or two . Starting my dinking and Dunkin early this year lol

We had on and off light streamers all night, picked up a fresh inch, bottomed out this morning at 8°.. Actually still snowing lightly with barely any clouds and the sun out lol

Some parts of Oswego county didn't do to bad.. Forecast was 6"-10" by morning.. The SE part of the county suffered the most, for obvious reasons..

In and out of multi bands, one minute heavy snow the next minute sunshine lol

If it's more of a multi band set up then it's anyone's guess..

If it's a single band on a NW Flow it tends to go south of Oswego county from past experiences..

Heavier snow with this little band than I saw all night lol Probably due to it's fluffy nature..

Fwiw

What a bust and not the good kind either.. Was more disappointed with overnight, 1" new, 4.5" storm total..

Ripping out currently.. 3.5" as of 1230 am..

The heaviest snow is now covering far WNY this evening with snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr, with lower snow rates further east. The SE edge of the precipitation band has been somewhat stubborn over the past several hours, with a few areas in the Southern Tier seeing very little or no precipitation thus far, although that will change overnight with a burst of snow. Areas along the SE edge have also had a little mixed precipitation, either from a warm nose poking across the 0C line near the state line, or from a lack of moisture in the column further NE across the Finger Lakes to the Southern Adirondacks. But all areas should see snow, or a return to snow as the upstream trough continues eastward and finally pushes the slow moving band of precipitation east overnight. Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area. A Winter Storm Warning remains with storm total accumulations of 7- 10 inches, with some local amounts of close to 12 inches where mesoscale banding and/or lake enhancement develops. The bulk of this accumulation will be through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, when travel conditions will be worst. Snowfall amounts will be much lower across far southern Cattaraugus and southern Allegany counties, where the wintry mix will hold snow amounts to the 3-5 inch range