It still looks as though it will become unsettled across the region
during this period, as a broad progressive mid level ridge will give
way to a large closed low. That said, it appears the precip shield
associated with this weekend`s storm will arrive here a bit later,
keeping the majority of Saturday dry. The exception will be the
possibility of a few rain or wet snow showers potentially making it
as far northeast as western NY and the Finger Lakes region toward
the latter part of the day. Also appears it will remain a bit colder
than previously forecast as the surface low passes just southwest of
our forecast area, which could mean as the main slug of precip moves
into the area for Saturday night and Sunday, that more could fall in
the form of snow or a wintry mix. In fact areas east of Lake Ontario
may remain all snow through the entire event, with a wintry mix
still possible across western NY and the Finger Lakes. Highs
Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in mid and upper 30s, however
areas east of Lake Ontario may not make it above the freezing mark.
Confidence for an even deeper, colder air mass to build across the
region for Sunday night through Tuesday is fairly high. Quite the
contrary when it comes to precip as models differ on the possible
evolution and track of a coastal low. The latest ECMWF and GEM both
have a coastal low forming south of Long Island Sunday night, then
slowly tracking northeast along the New England coast. While the
latest GFS forms a low off the Delmarva and eventually moves it
northeast, but too far off the New England coast to be of any
consequence to us. If the ECMWF/GEM solutions work out, could see
snow continuing across western and northcentral NY through at least
Monday, possibly lingering into Monday night. Low pressure will
finally pull away from the area on Tuesday, although there may still
be some leftover lighter snow showers still hanging around,
especially downwind of the lakes. Otherwise as hinted at earlier,
temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year. Cold
enough in fact, that just about all precip during the Sunday night
through Tuesday time frame will fall in the form of snow.