wolfie09

Gefs look much different than OP

Big storm potential still on the table, that's all we can ask for at this juncture..

It transfers off the coast next frame and was a pretty good run for CNY on North..

Common theme this evening , primary going farther north..

Was brought up on another board, chasing convection..

Gfs farther north with the primary as well..

The Thanksgiving rain storm pretty much hits a brick wall and heads east over NNY lol Which btw is gonna help some, creating a "log jam" with weak hp undercutting it , the coastal won't be in a hurry..

Some gefs members pretty far west..

Yeah the max (mean) snowfall went significantly west..

12z and 18z..

Gfs is the only model that doesn't wanna bring it up the coast lol Pretty much stalls off the coast of NJ..

It still looks as though it will become unsettled across the region during this period, as a broad progressive mid level ridge will give way to a large closed low. That said, it appears the precip shield associated with this weekend`s storm will arrive here a bit later, keeping the majority of Saturday dry. The exception will be the possibility of a few rain or wet snow showers potentially making it as far northeast as western NY and the Finger Lakes region toward the latter part of the day. Also appears it will remain a bit colder than previously forecast as the surface low passes just southwest of our forecast area, which could mean as the main slug of precip moves into the area for Saturday night and Sunday, that more could fall in the form of snow or a wintry mix. In fact areas east of Lake Ontario may remain all snow through the entire event, with a wintry mix still possible across western NY and the Finger Lakes. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in mid and upper 30s, however areas east of Lake Ontario may not make it above the freezing mark. Confidence for an even deeper, colder air mass to build across the region for Sunday night through Tuesday is fairly high. Quite the contrary when it comes to precip as models differ on the possible evolution and track of a coastal low. The latest ECMWF and GEM both have a coastal low forming south of Long Island Sunday night, then slowly tracking northeast along the New England coast. While the latest GFS forms a low off the Delmarva and eventually moves it northeast, but too far off the New England coast to be of any consequence to us. If the ECMWF/GEM solutions work out, could see snow continuing across western and northcentral NY through at least Monday, possibly lingering into Monday night. Low pressure will finally pull away from the area on Tuesday, although there may still be some leftover lighter snow showers still hanging around, especially downwind of the lakes. Otherwise as hinted at earlier, temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year. Cold enough in fact, that just about all precip during the Sunday night through Tuesday time frame will fall in the form of snow.

While true, look at the date it turns positive, after this storm..We will have an -nao during this event which I think is what everyone is getting at.

All down hill from here BTW what a beautiful day!!

Yeah big hit..

Call it what u want, it's stopping the system from going north..

Why does the primary go do east? And not into the lakes?

Canadian warmer with the primary..

Not sure I understand what you're saying lol If we had no blocking this would be in Canada.. The NAO is negative the first few days of December with a semi 50/50 low..

Nice burst for Rochester..

Gfs about 50 miles south with the primary so far, out to hour 120..