wolfie09

Euro is a light-moderate event with the primary low, big coastal snow storm..

Another view

Guess I'll be heading to Syracuse proper for a day/night lol From a couple inches to over a foot in about what 35 miles or so..

Gotta love confluence to the north..

Don't sleep on the primary out west..

Gfs trying.. Still much warmer with the primary compared to the euro/Nam/Canadian

Time to enjoy some wifey time, happy Thanksgiving guys!!!

All posted on another board, since I'm to lazy to get em myself lol https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/1461-december-1-3rd-2019-winter-storm/page/21/?tab=comments#comment-94161

Gfs is not really even better than the Canadian, at least in the medium range..

12z Gfs struggles day 5 huh

Nam is colder than the gfs with the primary, that's for sure..

Lol I won't 6z was posted above and cut totals in half..

Big difference with thermal profiles between the gfs and euro..

Euro ens mean

Nice little burst of winter at the moment, nothing sticking of course.. Kbuf A mature cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday night will track east while high pressure over our region will begrudgingly give way to this system. Conditions will slowly deteriorate as the warm front pushes slowly into Western NY overnight. The GFS/ECMWF have for the past couple of days been in generally agreement with this feature. However, there still remains some forecast challenges with how fast the push of warm air aloft moves in across the region. The GFS is rather fast and much warmer aloft, which would quickly transition P- type over from snow to freezing rain or plain rain. On the other hand, the ECMWF sounding profiles are much colder with a slower transition from southwest to Northeast across Western NY into the Finger Lakes. The North Country may not even see a transition if the colder solution were to come to fruition. For now, have gone with a blend of the two solutions at this point with most locals seeing a transition of P-type. Again, the lone exception will be across our far northern counties of Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties where it may stay all snow. While this won`t be a significant event, any amount of mixed precipitation will likely make for tricky travel keeping in mind that it will be a busy travel weekend. Sunday, the weakening low will slowly track east reaching northern Ohio by Sunday night. While this occurs, a secondary low will develop off the Delmarva coast and track northeast along the coast nearing Long Island Sunday night. On the backside, once again colder air will wrap back in along with some additional moisture backing across our far eastern counties. While it doesn`t appear at this point too add a significant amount of precipitation, there may be some minor accumulations depending on area surface temperatures.

Ggem right now is the coldest and farthest south..

Euro with a decent snowfall for CNY points Eastward.. Most of this is from the primary as the coastal misses just east..

Hearing some thunder, few flashes of lightning..

12,z Canadian

Euro a bit east..

Icon looked like garbage with all rain/mix with the primary but semi- redeemed itself with the coastal lol Now we see what the real models show..

General model (GFS/ECMWF) consensus that a broad and nearly vertically stack low over the Upper Midwest will slowly track east bringing unsettle weather beginning late Saturday night through early next week. With that said, have again slowed the arrival time of the precipitation for Saturday night with strong surface ridge to our north begrudgingly giving way to this system. At this point, it appears that the initial round of precipitation with this system will likely begin as snow. It will then transition over to a mixed bag as warmer air works in aloft early Sunday morning for Western NY and the Finger Lakes region. East of Lake Ontario, it appears sounding profiles will remain just cold enough to support all snow. With that said, the weakening low is forecast to pass by just to our south Sunday night into Monday. While this occurs, a secondary low develops near the Delmarva Coast and then tracks past Long Island. If this senerio occurs, colder air will again work back in aloft around the back side of this system across our region. Look for precipitation to transition back over to snow Sunday night and remain all snow after this time. Anyways, highs Sunday will peak in mid and upper 30s, however areas east of Lake Ontario may not make it much above the freezing mark if at all. Low pressure will finally pull away from the area on Monday night, although there may still be some leftover snow showers still hanging around, especially downwind of the lakes. Otherwise, with colder air filter in behind this system highs will once again average below normal for this time of year. Look for highs in the low to mid 30s Monday, Tuesday it could be even colder with highs mainly in the 20s.

The initial primary continues to shift north which now has mixing farther north..