wolfie09

Freezing drizzle here this morning, advisory for it just expired...Still icy out, stuck in the mid 20s..

Watches going up ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible, mixed at times with sleet. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible. Lower totals toward the Saint Lawrence river valley. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

I'll also post the link to the weather board i got this and various other model runs.. https://www.americanwx.com/forum/topic/6979-model-rage-thread/page/163/

Eps mean looks good..

Euro is little bit colder as well, kuchera actually shows a positive gain unlike the gfs.. Wouldn't take much of a shift to get the bigger snows in here but I'd be extremely happy if this verified lol

Not much difference overall

Not sure if it will mean anything verbatim but euro looks more tucked.. 0z top, 12z bottom..

Gefs individual members

Gefs look great.. 18+ as a mean for parts of CNY, according to the storm Vista maps floating around..

Ukmet

Ggem a little farther south then the gfs, still a very nice hit for Syracuse proper..

BTW kuchera takes off an inch for ksyr, so thats all LE , heavy wet stuff..Gfs remains one of the warmer models..

Rgem

What a weenie model we have here haha But I'm secretly hoping it scores one lol

Plenty cold for whatever does fall..

First map..

5" Rochester, 2 1/2" Buffalo.. The heaviest snow is just southeast of ksyr (10+) due to the coastal..

18z eps bumped north a bit with a mean of 8" in Syracuse and 7" in Fulton..

Only 84 lol

An slowly weakening area of low pressure located somewhere near the state of Iowa to start the period will move east, then east- southeast to somewhere near Ohio by late Sunday evening. At the same time, an area of high pressure centered just south of James Bay will remain pretty much stationary through this same time frame. This will help to ensure the track of the low remains south and west of NYS, keeping us on the `cool` side of the system. The associated warm/occluded front will approach form the southwest later Saturday night. This will bring the chance for snow showers into western NY after midnight, with the main area of precip expanding northeastward to the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region by Sunday morning. At this point it appears the surface warm front will not make it further north than Ohio/Pennsylvania, and that the occluded portion of the boundary extending east from the low will be what pushes into our region on Sunday. This also means any true warmer air will never make it into western and north central NY. That said, it will get warm enough aloft across western NY, possibly as far east as the Finger Lakes for a changeover from snow, to sleet/freezing rain and plain rain for some areas across the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier. Areas northeast of the Finger Lakes may keep snow as the primary p-type through the event, with the best bet for all snow remaining across the north country. The 12Z ECMWF/GEM remain in very good agreement on the evolution of this scenario, with both also trending a bit colder overall. The 12Z NAM is also in play now through early Sunday evening and is also very similar to the ECMWF/GEM. The outlier remains the GFS which tries to bring the nose of the warm air aloft to far northeast. With all this in mind, have trended the `all snow` line a bit further southwest, with the threat for any frozen or freezing precip confined to the western Finger Lakes and points west/southwest. Areas across far western NY and the western Southern Tier have the best chance for seeing a changeover to just plain rain from later Sunday morning through the afternoon. Freezing rain amounts do not appear to be that much at this time, but only takes a light glaze to create big travel problems. As for snow amounts, there will be the possibility for a few inches of accumulation for Monroe County and points east of the Genesee Valley and south of Lake Ontario during the first half of Sunday, with this potential then shifting northeast across the Eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon. This situation will be closely monitored over the next couple of days. Any shift in the track or strength of the low could shift this "zone of uncertainty" in either direction, so STAY TUNED. Heading into Sunday night, weakening diffuse low pressure just to our southwest will give way to a secondary area of low pressure somewhere near the Delmarva or Jersey coast. This low will then strengthen as it moves northeast just off the New England coastline. The contribution of moisture from the coastal system and parent upper low will keep snow, or a mix of rain and snow showers going through Sunday night depending on your location, with the threat of frozen/freezing precip no longer present as colder wraps in on the back side of the low removing the warm nose aloft. Colder air will deepen further on Monday, with just about all areas going over to all snow. Air aloft will become cold enough for lake enhanced/effect snow showers, mainly south of the Lakes on a cold northerly upslope flow. Any leftover snow showers will taper off Monday night as the low moves further away and drier air filters across the region

18z Canadian out to 84..

Gefs have been inland all along, we're still in the game lol

Gfs is way better.. And it's still to warm with the primary