wolfie09

Lol is it trying to downslope Redfield It's not just you matt

The primary impacts of a winter storm will be felt during the day Sunday when an area of mixed precipitation moves from southwest to northeast across the region. A warm layer of about +4C will quickly change precipitation to freezing rain across the Southern Tier since surface temperatures will still be in the upper 20s Sunday morning. As stacked low pressure centered near southern Lake Michigan transitions to a coastal low, the LLJ ahead of this system will weaken as it moves across our region. This will weaken the push of warm air aloft with the Buffalo to Rochester area likely to be a transition zone with sleet and freezing rain before thermal profiles support all (or mostly) snow northeast of Rochester. The precipitation will only last 3-6 hours, with the greatest impact on the Buffalo/Rochester metro areas Sunday morning through early afternoon. Snow will last through the afternoon hours east of Lake Ontario. 00Z model guidance is in good agreement for Sunday, with only minor differences in timing and thermal profiles. Latest consensus does support slowing the timing slightly. Despite consensus QPF of around a half inch across the Niagara Frontier, much of this will fall as sleet. This is why the ice forecast is not higher even though surface temperatures should remain below freezing for most of the day. Also, expect minimal along the Lake Erie shoreline due to downsloping and warmer temperatures off the Chautauqua Ridge. The upper level low will track southeastward across West Virginia Sunday night, while the surface low `jumps` to the Jersey coast. Lacking a clear focus precipitation will taper off during the first half of Sunday night. Even though 850mb temperatures will only be around -1C, thermal profiles are below freezing with deep moisture so expect any precipitation to be mainly snow. There is lower confidence in late Sunday night into Monday since model agreement deteriorates. Our region will be on the northwestern fringe of a developing coastal low, with some models effectively transporting Atlantic moisture westward into our region while others keep the bulk of this just to our east. Either way, snow will re- develop across most of the area, but amounts will depend on the evolution of the coastal low and associated mid level jet. Snow accumulation should be light across far Western New York, an inch or less. However, east of Rochester several inches of snow are possible. Based on this uncertainty, will maintain the Winter Storm Watch with forecast amounts right at critical thresholds. Also kept advisory headlines, but did break out Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties since precipitation will start later here and will be primarily snow. It`s also possible this advisory may need to be extended depending on the Monday portion of the storm

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Clown maps differ somewhat...3z had 13.6" for Syracuse, so not much difference according to the wb maps.. Fulton went from 10.3"-11.4" Rochester 8.8"-10.3" But yes pretty much model noise lol

We all increased about 1"-1.5" on the sref..

These do usually count in sleet..

Spread opens up along the coast as some members stall it while others continue NE..

Not much spread in the GLs anymore..

Kuchera does better taking out the sleet..

Storm Vista does include sleet

6z euro has 8"-10 back to Rochester 12" line gets to about me and freak 15" line to about Syracuse..

Gefs been all over this one.

Euro started out pretty far west but started to drift out in the Atlantic..

We could do decent with the initial push on Sunday..

The storm is still near NYC at 72 lol

And it's still snowing..

Pretty much stalls near NYC..

Ukmet looks like a really big hit for CNY.. Have to wait for regional view to really Tell

Yes it's messed up lol Gives me 2" LE all snow and about 11"-12" total, oh well lol

Some of that precip is rain or a mix ..

1"-2" an HR stuff on Sunday afternoon..