On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near
Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early
Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL
rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow
dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate.
By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region,
expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the
Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday
we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow.
Winds will continue to veer Wednesday night as the upper level
trough crosses into New England. By Wednesday night expect the lake
snows to be now dropping down towards Ski County/Southern Tier off
Lake Erie, and along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario and SE
of Lake Ontario for bands of snow coming over Lake Ontario. Snow
amounts Wednesday night will depend upon upstream
connections...which are still uncertain at this point in time with
the shifting winds.