wolfie09

Gfs is still the only model that mixes here on the front end, granted it came in a little colder.. Stealing digital snow from me lol

Pivotal usually doesn't include sleet, just got into range..

This is what will make it or break it for Rochester, we will know who's right by tomorrow afternoon lol

Rgem still in the colder/south camp..I expect the Ggem and hrdps to follow suit..

Icon is like 6" in 3 hours tomorrow afternoon..

This is a long duration event which is holding warnings back.. Even though I think the area can pick up 9" in 24 hours.

I'm starting to think the euro was to cold lol

U usually wanna be just north of the mix line..

Mixing gets close to Syracuse..

Eps

The last 90days the gfs is 4th in verification, rooting for the underdog!! Lol

It's only a matter of time before we lose the gfs to Bermuda or somewhere..

Better view of the European, be interesting to see if this was a blip or not.

Gefs members look west..

Pretty sure they include sleet..

Gefs have been huge hit for CNY all week.. That's why I'm not surprised the OP went that way lol

Gfs does redeem itself with the coastal..

To warm here for snow but not the lake.

On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate. By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region, expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow. Winds will continue to veer Wednesday night as the upper level trough crosses into New England. By Wednesday night expect the lake snows to be now dropping down towards Ski County/Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario and SE of Lake Ontario for bands of snow coming over Lake Ontario. Snow amounts Wednesday night will depend upon upstream connections...which are still uncertain at this point in time with the shifting winds.

Some improvements on the Nam..