wolfie09

Still waiting for first flakes here..

Wtf nssl was a pretty good run as well..

Good ole ARW models.. Good for nothing, but it shows heavy snow so I post lol

A very knowledgeable poster from another board has been mentioning the"fujiwara' effect with this system making it hard to pin down.. https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/1461-december-1-3rd-2019-winter-storm/page/73/?tab=comments#comment-95732 The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as the Fujiwara effect, Fujiw(h)ara interaction or binary interaction, is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices orbit each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. Extratropical cyclones typically engage in binary interaction when within 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of one another, while tropical cyclones typically interact within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other.

3k

Keep in mind this over like 36 hours lol Precip rates won't be insane.. Heaviest precipitation rates here will be this afternoon..

I thought it was the other way around lol Wpc made that claim the other day.. WAA thumps tend to over perform unless u mix of course..

Rap with a good 5"-7' between 18z and 0z..

Not by a significant amount but it's there..

This is gonna be some wet heavy stuff.. A rare event where kuchera shows less than 10-1.. Which is shown on the gfs/Nam..

It's this band here that the models are hammering the finger lakes with..As these bands rotate counter clockwise..

Storm Vista maps showing 6"-12" from kbuf-kroc but they do include sleet..

6z euro looks pretty similar to 0z.. 10"-12" for all of Oswego county, 12"-15" starts near Syracuse proper..15"-18' for the finger lakes.. The majority of guidance has the strongest banding rotating just south of Oswego county..

This band should make it up here by 12-1 pm..

Euro did warm up some with the initial slug.. But gives the south shore some nice bands from the coastal..

Yeah down from 12z for most.. Interestingly enough the off hour runs seem a lot snowier.. It also seems like parts of the coast will get in on the action..

Yeah, hrrr is in the warmer NAM camp, for now..

Here is the total precipitation

Weenies rejoice

I probably see more snow in 3 hours on the icon and Nam then the entire event on the Canadian lol Like I said, followed the rgem..