wolfie09

Yeah, I noticed that too.. They kinda did the same east of Ontario.. Calling for 3'-5" lower elevations and 6"+ tug, but they have 6+ from here to Sandy Creek which is lower elevations.

We have 24" this year from 7 events.. We have a Max of 7" from basically a 2 day system..

Do warnings count as verification? Lol

Synoptic storms are to hard to come by here lol Look at the 6z gfs, cutters or misses, nothing in between.. Been like that since I moved here..

Lol found a way to get the most rain in the region ..

Without that lake low winds wouldn't be out of the south with a storm system to our SE..Any way to fook us over lol

Wednesday a mid level trough and associated clipper low will pass well north of the area, with the clipper cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the mid to late afternoon. The cold front itself will do little, with nothing more than a few light snow showers. It will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment however. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with pre-existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 10-12K feet with the passage of the clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth. Off Lake Erie... Expect a band of relatively light lake effect snow showers to move north out of the Southern Tier and across Buffalo in the morning, ending up north of Buffalo across the Northtowns and Niagara County by late morning. This band will begin to move back south and east across the area by early to mid afternoon as the cold front reaches eastern Lake Erie. The band will intensify as it crosses the Buffalo area from a boost of synoptic support from the cold front, and increasing lake induced instability. The strong band will then move onshore from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases with high pressure building over Lake Erie. The fast pace of the southward band drift will greatly limit accumulations, even though the band of snow may become quite heavy. Early estimates suggest 2-4 inches from the Buffalo Metro area into portions of Genesee County, and 3-5 inches across the higher terrain of Southern Erie/Wyoming counties into the Chautauqua Ridge. Even though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours. Winds will also gust 30-35 knots around this time, producing blowing and drifting snow. Off Lake Ontario... Expect a similar trend just a few hours later. Tuesday morning disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape Vincent in northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will then intensify during the mid to late afternoon as the cold front approaches and synoptic support/instability improve. This intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight, with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into northern Cayuga/Wayne counties. A few snow showers may also clip the south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe counties as boundary layer flow veers. Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 or 3-5 inches across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region, with up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Wayne and northern Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight. While amounts are not overly impressive, this band may produce difficult travel for a few hours with heavy snow and 30-35 knot wind gusts producing blowing and drifting. Thursday a few lake effect snow showers may linger in the morning southeast of Lake Ontario with minor additional accumulations. High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes, ending the lake effect snow and bringing some partial clearing

LR 18z Rgem starts out with more of a wnw flow, more "Westerly" than "northerly" Valid 18z Wednesday

Lake effect snows beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night... Right now, it just doesn`t look like there will be a decent lake effect response initially or even significant snowfall in the long run. While the air mass will grow colder with time (H850T -12C/-13C by 00Z Wednesday), other factors will be working against well organized and intense lake effect snows. First and foremost, there is a lack of deep synoptic moisture behind the front. It`s a fairly dry air mass behind the front and then profiles show some decent shear. Finally, the BIGGEST factor is residence time. Per 12Z guidance and incorporating all the above factors, expect a weak lake response east of both lakes beginning late Tuesday afternoon and then continuing Tuesday night. Lake effect snows will likely focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Ontario with light accumulations occuring overnight. Wednesday, a shortwave and associated low will race by to our north through Quebec Canada. Wind flow ahead of this feature will back winds more to the southwest directing lake snows off Erie to the north into the Southtowns and Buffalo Metro area. Off lake Ontario, lake snows will get redirected across central Jefferson county. Lake snows are still expected to remain fairly weak ahead of this feature as it travels north. As was previously said, convergence occuring along the cold front with the clipper may merge with the lake effect snows which may yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will then become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes. The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

Ukmet out till Thursday morning has very little east of Ontario.. Likes Erie much better..

Both gfs and Ggem have a SW flow out ahead of the northern stream disturbance, Wednesday afternoon.

Nam is also a 12km model, not that much of a"high Rez" model to me lol Euro is 9km...We hardly pay attention to lake effect on that model.. Gfs is 13km , not much of a difference here.. Maybe I'm missing something lol

Yeah but I doubt it did from 84 hours out lol Look at the last 2 runs for the synoptic wave .. It can't nail down synoptic I doubt it can with lake effect ..

Valid till Wednesday am..

The one thing I'll say about that is the global models aren't the best at qpf for lake effect snow. Euro for example usually only shows trace amounts.. Look at last event, pretty sure no global had 1-1.5" liquid for the buffalo area lol

Gfs text output, low level wind direction.. All over the place..

Going to be hard to get warning criteria anywhere with the band on the move.. Unless we have strong rates.

Until the Negative NAO suppresses everything..haha I think a little bit positive is a good thing lol Usually what's good for the coast is not good for us..

Gfs now has a long duration LES event mid month, which will disappear by next run .

Pretty much a run of the mill lake effect event.. Starts out SW and ends NW .I guess at least most get a taste lol

Our attention then turns to lake effect snow potential. Over the past several days, the setup shown by model guidance has looked steadily less impressive, with numerous wind direction changes and periods of shear and dry air limiting potential. While we expect accumulating lake snows, the potential for a truly major event looks to be off the table at this point A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass by to the north of our area Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will move north ahead of the clipper as boundary layer flow backs. This will carry the Lake Erie snow north into Buffalo, and possibly north of Buffalo briefly. Lake Ontario snow will move into central and northern Jefferson County. It should still be relatively weak during the trip northward. Lake snows will then move back south with the passage of the clipper, and likely intensify as cold air deepens and lake instability increases. Convergence along the cold front of the clipper may merge with the lake effect snow and yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes. The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

NWS dropped the ball with low temps tonight, down to 7 imby..

If the front was just 12 hours slower lol Cmc leading the way here, euro, Nam following.. Won't mean much for us unless it has an effect on the wind direction..

Updated AFD . Not as encouraging lol Long term is generally a tranquil period with a slow warm up. Some lake effect snow showers are possible early on, then The upper trough and surface high slides east allowing for a southwest flow to develop bringing increasingly milder air into the area