wolfie09

Not the prettiest Dave, just to warm..

Flow should be out of the west the majority of this evening but the band looks a little on the weakish side.

Euro over the next 6 days.. Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today.. Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

I'm liking the chances for a few inches sat night into Sunday, only the gfs not onboard.

LMAO Yes sir.. Bought a house about 30 miles NE in N.Altmar..

Includes the entire event...

I guess Fulton now does well with a west wind lol They are forecast more than me tonight lol Snow. Areas of blowing snow before midnight. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

New map..

Euro for Monday night-Tuesday.

Euro still has some wrap around/enhancement over the weekend.. As well as the Canadian

Yankees just signed Cole for 324 million dollars over 9 years It's not my money lol They desperately needed an ace.

Yeah, they lowered totals as of 650 pm.. Originally it looked like a wnw-nw flow tomorrow night into Thursday which is no longer the case..

U sure your looking at the gfs lol Cuts west of us, all mix/rain for wny.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system mentioned above will likely cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Colder air deepening across the eastern Great Lakes and H850T falling to -11C/-13C will bring the potential for lake effect- enhanced snows east of the lakes. Otherwise, lows Saturday night will fall back into the low 30s by daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will likely not change all that much with highs in the mid 30s for most locations. The system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Colder air continuing to filter into the Great Lakes in its wake will continue to support lake effect snows east and southeast of the lakes

I wouldn't think that would be all rain but who knows lol

Last couple AFD has mentioned"lake enhancement".

An interesting lake effect event will be unfolding tonight through Wednesday night. Confidence in timing and location is fairly high, but amounts and intensity is not quite as high. Weak lake effect processes are now underway generally as expected downwind of Lake Erie with low-topped convection capped at ~7000` with very dry air above that level. This is resulting in light accumulations toward the Chautauqua Ridge this afternoon. Temperatures at cap level will continue to slowly drop through the night but with little or no increase in available moisture as seen by numerous but lackluster upstream horizontal convective rolls over MI. East of Lake Erie... Early this evening, westerly flow along the Chautauqua Ridge and sufficient lapse rates supportive of lake effect processes will result in a period of lake effect snow through the evening hours. An advisory is in effect for traditional westerly flow regions (portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties), but snow rates overnight may be somewhat unimpressive due to the initial lack of available moisture and still cooling airmass, followed by backing winds overnight that will begin to disrupt any nocturnal consolidation. Do not expect much more than an inch or two in these areas. The more interesting event will occur near sunrise as the band heads north (during the commute) across the Southtowns, and then into Metro Buffalo during the morning. Some strengthening of the mostly singular band is expected during this time with full lake fetch. The band should reach its northern extent by midday, probably just clipping SE Niagara County and part of Orleans County before heading back to the south as the main upper level trough finally moves in. There remains uncertainty on the strength and duration of the band while it lingers over/north of Metro Buffalo and into the Northtowns. But, once it starts to move, it should quickly head south, with the entire lake band swinging south (and/or being pushed into the shoreline), blowing past the Southtowns, and back into the Southern Tier. The band may be briefly strong during the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from the upper level trough. The band should then begin to weaken later Wednesday evening after losing adequate fetch while the airmass aloft continues to dry out. The lower confidence in amounts is compounded by the possibility of blowing snow. This should may help keep snow amounts down some, but it will also result in a relatively impactful day in terms of travel. While not a banner event by any means, this event should still be troublesome for some. As such, a fairly strongly worded advisory remains in place. Most areas should end up with a an inch or two as the band moves north, followed by another inch or two as the band moves south. Highest amounts should be over Northern Erie County where the band lingers the longest. It`s possible some areas could exceed 7" if the band lingers before heading south, but the emphasis for this event should be focused more in impact from blowing snow rather than amounts. East of Lake Ontario... A lake banding will probably have a hard time getting established until late tonight ESE of Lake Ontario due to the above noted limited moisture availability. Some consolidation is expected during Wednesday as flow backs, with a better defined lake band forming by afternoon with Lake Erie serving as its upstream connection. Once this is established, a lake band should be roughly over the St Lawrence Valley. But with continued limited moisture and less than ideal fetch, snow rates and corresponding snow amounts should be low, at least until the band starts moving back south toward the more traditional/long fetch east of Lake Ontario in the afternoon. An upstream multi-lake connection should then be established ESE of Lake Ontario by Wednesday evening together with the coldest air aloft. This may result in the best opportunity for snow rates of 1-2"/hr, but only for a relatively short duration Wednesday evening. Increasingly dry air aloft should weaken lake bands overnight. Similar to downwind of Erie, areas east of Lake Ontario will be under an Advisory with blowing snow possibly leading to as much of an impact as snow amounts. In general, expect snow amounts to be fairly tame over this traditionally hard-hit region, with most locations staying under 7". Highest amounts should be over the Tug Hill and toward Oswego County (mainly late Wed-->Wed eve), with less, possibly much less elsewhere

They see something they don't like, probably the 3k Nam lol Previous forecast this morning had 3"-5" Wednesday evening..

I know bro, it's the worst model we have. Lol It was more tongue and cheek..

What no 3k Nam and it's 0.7" for Buffalo lol I hate this damn model . Now watch it verify lol

We do have some confluence to the north and some cold air out ahead of the system. Has no choice but to transfer. The previous cutter could act as a 50/50.

Actually it's more of a SWFE ..

Ggem and icon run west of the apps. Euro did as well until last run .