wolfie09

Rgem on the warmer side of the envelope..

3k not nearly as friendly but looks good for WNY..

Almost all that east of Ontario falls in a 6 hr period..3/4" liquid in 6 hrs is plenty heavy enough to cool the column..

Nam is actually a little warmer here.

Nam cold and wet bias at play? Lol Probably, shows 6+ for the entire region..

Tues event quite marginal as well.. Granted were only talking about a few inches..

Gfs for example never switches us over..lol But yet NaM has near a foot haha Which is unrealistic too.. Now do we really think that heavy precip will be rain lol Not with it cold enough aloft..Gfs will be wrong with surface temps...

Tell that to the NWS lol They will clearly pick the warmest model and run with it..

Rgem really likes the enhancement east of Ontario..

Cold air advection will start to change the rain to snow as early as Saturday afternoon, especially at higher elevations of the western Southern Tier, as the surface low tracks north into southern Quebec by Saturday evening. The low will continue to push northward while deepening, pulling down much colder air behind it. This will eventually change all the precipitation over to snow by Sunday. The cold advection will lead to a period of lake enhanced snows east of the lakes, before the synoptic moisture gets cut off by approaching surface high pressure from the Ohio valley Sunday night. The highest snow accumulations are expected across the higher terrain east of the lakes where the change over to snow occurs the quickest and lake enhancement occurs. In these areas, could be looking at amounts as high as 4-6 inches, perhaps as much as 3-4 inches across the Bristol Hills. Temperatures will remain marginal at lower elevations with accumulations likely limited to an inch or less.

Euro came north for Tuesday, gfs went south..

Nam products look decent.. This is about 6 hours of precip..

Eventually the cold will win out, even the NWS says that.. Depends on when and how much precip is left ..

If this system retrogrades like that we'll probably see a Westerly flow develop depending on the other parameters..

Marginal either way but big difference between upper 30's and lower 30's..

Look at the wind direction, out of the NW and still rain .Track 100 miles to the east. Give me a break lol Must be no cold air in Canada..

Icon was a little colder.. Exact track matters a lot as well.. Some have it more towards CNY while others Eastern part of the state.. NWS mentioned a deformation axis yesterday..Who knows where that sets up..

3k nam pretty much the same, right around lunchtime Saturday, 12+ hrs earlier than the gfs.. Temps will be marginal even on the backside..

Nam flips WNY over to snow by 1 pm Sat

The longest lake effect band in history..

Euro still weak and south for Tuesday.

It's going to rain as well lol