wolfie09

U can see a little enhancement/wrap around east of Ontario..

Sref 12 hr mean is 4"- 5" here..

But they don't mention the Lake effect potential on the regional..

Regional Canadian has 1" for Rochester.. Granted they were talking more about precip amounts..

The 18z NAM increased its QPF even further. The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. Though the 18z runs from the GFS and Canadian trended SLIGHTLY higher in their QPF, they remain nowhere near as high as the NAM or to lesser extent the high res WRF or NMM. For instance, the 18z NAM in the 6 hour period ending at 00z Sun (when bulk of forcing with rapidly moving upper trough and sfc low moves out) has 0.75 to 1.15 inches of QPF over much of western NY while the GFS in that same time shows 0.40 to 0.60 inch and Canadian shows 0.50 to 0.75 inches. 12z ECMWF is more in line with the GFS. SREF is also not near as high as the NAM output, showing 0.20 to 0.40 inches of QPF. Would tend to put more faith into the NAM idea if the SREF was at least close in the ballpark. But, frankly it is not. For now, think a solution closer to the GFS/ECMWF, maybe tilted a bit toward more Regional Canadian may be way to go for QPF

But they look like the NAM lol Which changes us over between 0-1z..

Many of the gefs members are colder than the OP.. About 15 of the members change us over by 0z while the OP is near 6z.. The members that have the earlier changeover have 6"+ while the ones that don't have a couple inches.

Haha I guess this is what happens when u flip earlier.. It would be nice if it had some backing lol Just the NAM being the NAM..

Next up, a southern stream system will develop across the Tennessee Valley Monday. This system will track just to our south and east into Monday night which would keep a majority of us on the northern side of the low. We will again, be under the influence of the right entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet while a deformation zone develops across NYS Monday night. At this time, snow looks likely Monday into Monday night however the track of the low is in close proximity to NYS. Shifts in the track may bring in warmer air and cut down on snow chances. Based on 12z 12/13 guidance, a few inches is possible across the entire region through Monday night. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 30s across western NY Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but stay tuned.

There is still a high degree of model spread concerning snow amounts for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. The 12Z NAM, and all the high resolution NAM based guidance significantly increased snowfall across Western NY, with much higher QPF developing in the cold air later Saturday afternoon and evening. The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. The past few runs of the ECMWF are a compromise between the NAM and GFS based guidance, and seems most reasonable. Cold advection to the west of the deepening cyclone will only initially cool the column to a near isothermal layer at or just below freezing Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures will fall to near or just above the freezing mark during this time. Given this scenario, snow:water ratios will be low, likely less than 10:1 through early Saturday evening before improving overnight as the column and surface grow colder. Given the above expectations, we have increased the speed of changeover to snow in the new forecast, and also increased snow amounts, but not to the extent of the NAM and high-res NAM based guidance. The latest forecast is for 4-8 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event. We will start with a high end advisory for now. It is possible some of this area may reach low end warning criteria, especially if the forecast trends towards the more aggressive NAM solutions. Went with 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of Western NY, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake Ontario with a later change to snow. Again, if the more aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher. East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau may see 4-7 inches, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this will occur later Saturday night into Sunday morning once westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop. This area may need an advisory as well, but given ongoing uncertainties with this system will hold off on the headline for now in this area.

Between both systems..

Euro is probably the farthest east.

Ukmet is kinda like the Ggem , weak and south for Monday night.. Maybe couple/few inches..

Well once we get past the rain tomorrow, whatever snow that does fall will stick around and then some..

Ukmet loaded with precip.. This includes both systems..

It's like a torch today and I'm digging it lol We are going to lose our snowpack anyway, might as well have an enjoyable day.

I love the analogy retard . Sorry it's a "hood" thing.. Giants just saved themselves an extra 12mill for next season..

The end of the European OP run had windchills from -15 to -30 for Ontario into the Adirondacks and NE.

Gfs between both systems .

40+mm into the southern tug..

Not much talk about lake effect potential but that's a good spot for the LP to be hanging out..

It's all about track.. Rgem goes through onieda county while the Nam and euro are farther east..