wolfie09

Canadian was a little bit north of the gfs but much weaker with the precip..A combination of both would be nice ..

Gfs for Tuesday

WNW is mainly 280-300 vector, 280 puts it near parish, 300 south of Fulton..Ksyr needs more of a 310.

Wnw flow are tricky though, more times than not it sits just north of Fulton from volney to parish..They need a WNW flow as well with more emphasis on the Westerly..

Syracuse may see just as much as Buffalo and Rochester..

Ratios will be like 6/7-1 unless u have some elevation..

Still have a solid snowpack here, it's been through the ringer lol Rain, warmth, fog and still no grass since the end of November. I doubt we lose it a today before we receive new snow, we'll see.

Maybe the hrrr is to warm but it gives credence to the rgem which has been on the warm train since day 1. Still going east of Ontario..

I'm not sold on the Tues system either.. Euro, Ggem, icon and ukmet all south. We don't want LP going off the snj coast.. Gfs is the only model north.

Nam kuchera shows ratios at 6/1-8/1 for majority of the event until the tail end.. Gonna need an inch liquid to see anything decent.. Looking like 1"-3" of slop for most unless u have some elevation.

As the upper trough swings through, it will result in rapid deepening of the approaching surface low as it tracks from eastern New York into southern Quebec later today and tonight. Cold air advection building into the region on the western side of the deepening low will start to change the rain over to snow as surface temperatures lower to near freezing. 00z GFS/NAM profiles suggesting this will take place first over the higher terrain of western New York between 18z and 21z, then gradually makes its way down to lower elevations after 21z. Snow to water ratios will be low through this evening, probably on the order of 8:1, perhaps even lower, but improvement will take place tonight as the column and surface grow colder. This will make for a very wet snow that will make for difficult travel conditions once it begins to accumulate on the roads. In terms of snow amounts, the latest forecast brings an uptick to 5- 10 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event and where the change to snow first occurs this afternoon. We think that most of the snow will fall within about a 9 hour time period or so from 21z this afternoon through 06z tonight where snowfall rates could reach or exceed an inch per hour. We have opted to upgrade this area of western New York to a winter storm warning. Continued with 3-5 inches across the lower elevations of western New York, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake Ontario with a later change to snow. East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau looks to be in the 5-9 inch range, although depending on the exact change over time and duration, localized higher amounts are possible. Have opted to issue a winter weather advisory at this time, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this will occur later tonight into Sunday morning once westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop.

Not the late game trends you wanna see..

Nam starting to fold. 3k

All the globals are warm, Ggem, icon , gfs etc.. Hopefully they just aren't picking up dynamic cooling..They all look elevation dependent including the rgem..

Gfs came in a little south with the Tues system as well.. Solid for the Syracuse crew..

Arw is the only SR model without at least 0 .60" LE in the form of snow.

Rgem coming in warm again.. Ksyr 1" Kroc 1.4" Kbuf 6.0"

Double digits on the 3k as well.

If the SR models are correct, we will be getting some headlines by morning... Actually they are pretty much showing warning criteria..

Foot for the tug on the NAM , I'm just outside it..Need to see the rgem improve..

Hrrr has 7"-8" here , far from over yet..

Nam is actually colder by 1 hr..

Nam may darn be right with changeover time but it's probably throwing to much precip in the cold sector..

Best 12 hr period for Rochester.. Yellowish color is pretty much 3"..