wolfie09

Looks like Pulaski had all or mostly rain last night, almost nothing but grass.. It's funny riding down rt13 and going from several inches to nothing in a matter of a house or two lol Secretly one of the biggest rip off areas..

I would expect the 12z euro to move north at least somewhat , you would think..

This is the week Syracuse starts their comeback..(includes 2 systems)

If the rgem is correct a new band will form over or near Matt, albeit in some what of a weakened State.

This band means business, too bad winds are already shifting..

Shows you how bad last December was , I've already surpassed those totals..But in a way it's just like last December with all these cutters destroying our snow pack..

Lake starting to fire up..

Snow Monday night and into Tuesday will be on the minor side, with just an inch or two Monday night, and an additional 1 -3 inches Tuesday. As the inverted trough passes us Tuesday, precipitation will taper off from west to east behind its passage. Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough...which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result, snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range.

Nam looks solid but when doesn't it lol 3k farther south..

Lake effect this week look meh, transient in nature, 12 hour window for NW flow before HP puts the kabash on it..

North Redfield had less snow than Rochester coming into today lol Right around 29"..Only another 259" to get to average..

18z went through the Catskills, 0z through CNJ..

Verbatim the NAM was a quite a bit south with the heaviest precipitation..

Idk man all the models showing some form of lake effect/enhancement.. Gfs has 850s between-8c and-15c.. Starting at 4am..

2 nearest WU stations down to 32° but yeah extremely wet crap lol

This is going to fill in right over Oswego county, ripping out right now..

Interesting that the NWS is talking"upslope" snow overnight but some of the models like the hrrr and rgem develop a single band overnight on a Westerly flow.. Eventually going wnw..

Radar doesn't look the best unless it fills in.. Blue returns aren't great with snow with this kind of water content..

Latest hrrr joined the rgem and Nam products with a nice batch of precip for Oswego county.

Took about 10 min to start sticking on the driveway..

Car thermometer already down to 33°, was low 40s just a couple hours ago..

Big wet flakes just started here..