wolfie09

Light snow is expected to spread north into the southern Tier by midnight and move north-northeast into Tuesday morning. Much of the North Country will remain dry overnight with only snow showers moving north of the Mohawk Valley by sunrise Tuesday. Snow will move into the North Country Tuesday morning while continuing across western NY. Thermal profiles suggest drier air entering the mid-upper levels and the loss of ice in the DGZ is possible across inland Southern Tier counties Tuesday morning. This may cause a brief period of freezing drizzle to mix in with snow. This shouldn`t hurt snow accumulations as most snow will fall late tonight into Tuesday morning for these areas. By 7AM Tuesday, snow accumulations will range from 2-3 inches across inland areas of the western Southern Tier and the western Finger Lakes. Less than an inch is expected across the Lake Plains and east of Lake Ontario which includes the cities of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Low temperatures will fall ot the mid to upper 20s and into the upper teens on the Tug Hill overnight. As low pressure tracks into New Jersey and off the southern New England coast by Tuesday afternoon, the shortwave trough will provide additional support for snow as moisture and lift increase across the eastern Great Lakes. Snow will diminish from west to east into Tuesday evening as the trough axis moves into western NY. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches are expected across much of the area with 1-2 inches across the Niagara Frontier, along the Lake Ontario shoreline and across the northern Tug Hill region. Amounts of 4-6 inches are expected across inland areas of the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes as they will see the longest duration of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory remains as is for Southern Erie county to Ontario county and south to include the Southern Tier. Highs will range from the upper 20s to low 30s across the higher elevations to the low to mid 30s across the Lake Plains

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing..

So Canadian looks just like the ukmet with a band forming Wednesday morning on a nw Flow behind the system, before lifting north and then back south with the CF.. Hitting me with the band twice lol I'll take what I can get..haha

Ukmet has a decent band Wednesday morning with the CF before it breaks apart due to the wind change.. After this not sure when the next threat is, may be a while lol

Snow totals for both systems..

Soon we can start following the trends on the hrrr..

It's not a complete whiff, just nothing special lol 1"-3" of snow showers over 12hrs.. Another thing I've noticed is the NAM/GFS really dry us out quick after the front, something to watch for..

6z maybe a touch north..

Not sure what u guys are seeing lol Almost identical to 6z and mixing is not even near ksyr..

Nam kuchera which nailed the last 2 events..

Almost no break between systems, maybe couple hours.

Rgem is becoming our kryptonite lol Still south with a similar track as the European..

Models yesterday had it in mainly in northern VA, now starting to see it pop up in WV..One more little bump north/west and a moderate 3"-5" could be possible.

If the models continued this NE it would be decent, instead they all trek east-ene off the coast..

Widespread synoptic snow will be ongoing Tuesday morning as a weak low tracks towards the Delmarva. As the low slides to our south, we will remain well within the cold side of the system. Additional snow amounts into Tuesday afternoon remain close to continuity and latest WPC guidance with 2-3" focused south of the Thruway and 1-2" to the north including the Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown areas. The low will deepen a bit as it moves approaches the New Jersey coast late Tuesday. This will pull the deeper moisture away from the area with the synoptic snow diminishing from west to east through the afternoon. Lake enhanced snow starts not too far behind the ending of the synoptic snow, as colder air starts to work into the area behind the departing low. The initial lake response will be muted, but will take on an uptick as we move through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as moisture increases from an upstream shortwave trough and an approaching cold front. This sharp cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday morning bringing an arctic blast into the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front will send 850 mb temperatures plummeting to between -20C and -22C by Wednesday afternoon, producing extreme over-lake instability. A period of at least moderate intensity lake effect snow will develop during this time period. There may be a period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that the lake snows could focus northeast of the lakes ahead of the cold front, possibly as far north as the Buffalo metro area, but the west-northwest flow behind the front will quickly shift the lake snows southward into the Boston Hills, higher terrain of Wyoming county and the Chautauqua ridge for much of the day Wednesday. The lake effect snow should continue straight into Wednesday night before slowly diminishing in intensity as we get to Thursday morning, with the approach of surface high pressure from the Ohio Valley and associated dry air and subsidence causing inversion heights to come down. Accumulations at the stage look to be at least several inches and certainly plowable for areas east of the lakes.

Euro came in North, obviously on the northern fringes, 1"-3" at 10-1..

When globals look like this its usually a multi band set up, Thursday morning, , which can obviously set up anywhere, it will be cold with pretty high ratios..

Lake effect snow bands will form ahead of the cold front early Wednesday morning northeast of the Lakes and will shift southward behind the cold front. Winds quickly become west-northwest through the afternoon and while it will be favorable for snow squalls, the quick change in wind direction will limit the amount of snow accumulation east of the Lakes. Snowfall accumulations will still likely reach headline criteria but the event will be short-lived off both lakes. Surface high pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and dry air and subsidence will cause inversion heights to come down. Lake snows will slowly come to an end east of Lake Erie late Wednesday night and likely continue southeast of Lake Ontario into Thursday morning.

Even navy goes that route.. I think we're still good for a couple/few inches..

Majority of guidance goes northern VA through CNJ, euro goes southern VA and south of NJ.. That's pretty much the difference..

Difference between NAM and euro wrt track.

Similar type HWO east of Ontario Lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible.